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Top horses and best bets for horse racing this weekend

The key horse races this week on the Road to the Kentucky Derby offers some of our top horses and best bets this week, alongside the Beholder Mile S. and Thorpedo Anna's return in the Azeri, and more awesome racing.

Click to jump to each race listed:

• Tampa Bay Derby
• Beholder Mile Stakes
• Azeri Stake
• Pasadena Stakes
• Pick 3
• Pick 4

Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast

Jason looks ahead to the big day at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, providing his opinion on big races and discussing local contenders taking on big national connections. 

RELATED: Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem for March 6, 2025

Best Bets for the Tampa Bay Derby

Read the full analysis here: Tipsheet: 2025 Tampa Bay Derby

A talented field of seven sophomores are signed on to travel 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby S. (G3) Discover our best bets below and prepare to build your bankroll!

Tampa Bay Derby Wagers

• $20 win and place #1 Owen Almighty
• $2 superfecta key 1 with 2,3,7

Top Horses for the Tampa Bay Derby Stakes:

Click on each horse name to add them to your stable. Never miss a race they're a part of again!

#1 OWEN ALMIGHTY: Top selection dueled throughout when second in the Sam F. Davis S. on the oval and might take this cast all the way on the front end in this one. The Brian Lynch trainee is well drawn on the inside to use his natural speed, and the son of Speightstown has the benefit of having a pair of runs over the oval, too. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the assignment. 

#7 PATCH ADAMS: Into Mischief sophomore burned a lot of money when fourth in the Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park, but the bay did make a nice move in the race following a slow start, and I think he rates a big chance with an expected rebound. The Kentucky-bred was a smashing maiden winner beneath the Twin Spires two back, and something resembling that run will have him well-placed in the lane with Florent Geroux coming in to ride. 

#2 CHANCER MCPATRICK: Bay son of McKinzie was a two-time Grade 1 hero last season and makes his 2025 debut on this occasion. The three-year-old colt will have blinkers on for the initial time and has been working well in preparation for this tilt. This classy Kentucky-bred will have Flavien Prat in the silks. 

#3 HILL ROAD: Quality Road colt closed from well back to be third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his U. S. bow and will make a first appearance since coming to Chad Brown. The $350,000 yearling purchase has reportedly trained in forward fashion in advance of his sophomore debut, and he is an obvious threat with Tyler Gaffalione in the silks. 

RELATED: Meet the Contenders: 2025 Tampa Bay Derby

The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali offer their best bets and fades at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Tampa Bay Downs, which will host the next stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

Best Bets for the 2025 Beholder Mile Stakes:

Read the full analysis here: How to bet the 2025 Beholder Mile Stakes

An excellent but compact field of six will vie in Saturday’s $300,000 Beholder Mile S. (G1) at Santa Anita. Check out these best bets below!

Beholder Mile Wagers

$30 win #1 Richi ($30)
$5 trifecta 1,3 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,6 ($20)

Top Horses for the 2025 Beholder Mile: 

Click on each horse name to add them to your stable. Never miss a race they're a part of again!

#1 Richi (2-1), who will make her U. S. route debut in the heat. By Practical Joke, the five-year-old has improved her Brisnet Speed figure in each try since arriving in the States and has endured a lot of success running long in her native Chile, too. The mare has solid gate presence and the ability to be placed in the mix early, and I expect her to be tracking the tempo from the second spot to the top of the stretch in this endeavor. She comes off a third-place run behind the fine Kopion in the Santa Monica S. (G2) at seven furlongs in a race that was better than it appears on paper, and she will improve off of that showing with Antonio Fresu in the silks. 

#3 Cavalieri (9-5) passed the class test with a game score in the La Canada S. (G3) in her latest appearance for Baffert. Purchased for $900,000 as a juvenile, the Nyquist four-year-old is lightly raced with room for improvement, having run just three times in advance of Saturday, and the dark bay could be controlling speed in the field, as well. The Kentucky-bred shows a handful of well-spaced morning works in preparation for her Grade 1 debut and looms large if she breaks well beneath regular pilot Juan Hernandez. 

#6 Alpha Bella (6-1) has come home second in three graded races in succession since moving to the dirt and wouldn’t be a major surprise from the outside post slot. This Justify mare made the favorite work hard in the La Canada S. (G3) last time out, and if the pace backs up at all in the event, then she will be a menacing figure approaching the turn for home with Hector Berrios in the controls. 

Inside the Kentucky Derby: 

After a weekend of exciting races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series the leaderboard is starting to get flushed out as we get into March. Darren and KK recap recent contenders from the San Felipe, Gotham and the Fountain of Youth. They then shift focus to Tampa Bay Downs and the running of the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend. Darren and KK analyze the full race card, previewing the horses that could impact the standings.

Best Bets for the Azeri

Read the full analysis here: Betting With, and Against, Thorpedo Anna in the Azeri

Reigning Horse of the Year #1 Thorpedo Anna (2-5) will face six fillies and mares in her comeback in Saturday’s $400,000 Azeri S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park. The feature will be contested at 1 1/16 miles and looks like a one-horse race if the superstar four-year-old runs her best. However, if your hearts not set on this favorite, here are some options betting and against the 2024 Kentucky Oaks winner to secure your best bet.

Thorpedo Anna – With

• $20 trifecta key 1 with 2,3 ($40)

Thorpedo Anna – Against

• $5 trifecta 2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 ($20)
• $1 trifecta 2,3 with 1,2,3 with all ($20)

Thorpedo Anna training at Oaklawn Park ahead of Azeri

Top Horses against Thorpedo Anna in the Azeri

#3 Jody’s Pride (8-1) ran a big one when a neck back in third in the Inside Information S. (G2) at Gulfstream Park to kick off her 2025 campaign for conditioner Jorge Abreu. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) runner-up is a lightly raced daughter of American Pharoah who has run well in all but one lifetime try on the dirt, and she could surely improve second time off the layoff, as well. She will stalk the action behind a lively early tempo under Ricardo Santana, Jr. 

#2 Alpine Princess (6-1) has just missed in a pair of consecutive Grade 3 tilts in advance of this and is a logical alternative if the favorite fails to fire for some reason. Trained by Brad Cox, the two-time stakes queen possesses a big turn of foot on her best day, and since I expect the tempo to be lively, the four-year-old could receive a nice pace setup in the affair. The bay daughter of Classic Empire is a three-time victress at the trip and comes into the heat with a pair of swift morning moves, too. I expect her to save ground to the top of the lane with Christian Torres in the irons.