Horses to play in giant carryovers at Santa Anita, Monmouth

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson analyzes a pair of lucrative Sunday carryovers at Santa Anita and Monmouth Park.

Santa Anita, Race 7: $346,136 Pick 6 mandatory payout (6:00 p.m. ET)

Sunday is closing day at Santa Anita, which means there’s a massive $346,136 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover slated for mandatory payout. The prize pool will be dispersed equally among all bettors who select the highest number of winners, no unique winning ticket required.

That’s good, because the six races have drawn a total of 67 entries (averaging nearly 11.2 per race), so constructing a winning ticket of any kind won’t be easy. Fortunately, we can simplify the sequence by singling #3 Flying Drummer (5-2) in Race 10, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over one mile on dirt.

Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Flying Drummer showed promise as a juvenile in 2021, competing in the American Pharoah (G1) before nabbing a one-mile maiden special weight by 5 1/2 lengths. Unfortunately, Flying Drumme didn’t race at all in 2022, but the son of Gun Runner recently returned to action with a neck defeat in a contest over this class, distance, and class level on May 27.

That narrow loss produced a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed rating. Baffert wins at a 35% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, and hot jockey Juan Hernandez (a 35% winner teaming up with Baffert over the last two months) is named to ride, so all signs suggest Flying Drummer can visit the winner’s circle on Sunday.

Monmouth Park, Race 1: $74,986 Pick 5 carryover (12:40 p.m. ET)

The Sunday card at Monmouth Park gets underway with a bang. The 50-cent Early Pick 5 boasts an enticing non-jackpot prize pool worth $74,986.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, we recommend #4 Wheelingndealing (5-2) in Race 5, a $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. The daughter of Flat Out was in sharp form during the winter at Gulfstream Park, winning a pair of $16,000 starter optional claimers sprinting six furlongs on dirt with sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 79.

Wheelingndealing has been freshened since finishing fourth in a $25,000 starter optional claimer at Gulfstream on Feb. 8, a race from which she was claimed by trainer Kelly Breen. Breen strikes at a solid 18% rate with horses running for the first time following a claim, and red-hot jockey Paco Lopez (a 32% winner at Monmouth this meet) is picking up the mount, so there are a lot of positives in Wheelingndealing’s corner.

Only one of Wheelingndealing’s Sunday rivals has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, but that’s #7 One Tough Dame (9-2), who followed up her career-best 81 with diminishing figures of 69 and 58. If Wheelingndealing brings her A-game to Monmouth (and there’s no reason to think she won’t), she can visit the winner’s circle as a single to close out the Pick 5.

Good luck!