How can will-pays and probable payoffs reveal hidden betting value?

Everyone knows how win odds determine the order of favoritism in a horse race. One glance and you can quickly see which horses are preferred (or not) by bettors.

But did you know the odds in the win pool aren’t the only way to gauge how bettors are playing? Two other handy options exist: will-pays and probable payoffs.

What are will-pays and probable payoffs?

Will-pays and probable payoffs are tables of numbers indicating (or projecting) the payoffs for certain exotic wagers. You see, win odds reflect only the money wagered in the win pool, so they have no direct connection to the payoffs for exotic wagers. The only correlation is the fact a horse popular in the win pool will, in all likelihood, be a popular choice in exotic wagers as well.

This is where will-pays and probable payoffs come into play. Will-plays show you the exact payoffs for multi-race wagers ending in the upcoming race, while probable payoffs display the estimated payoffs for exacta and double wagers beginning in the upcoming race. Probable payoffs are estimated because new bets are constantly being placed, causing the probable payoffs to update repeatedly.

How do I read will-pays and probable payoffs?

Reading a table of will-pays is simple. The program numbers for every horse in the race you’re betting will be listed on the left. To the right are columns headlined by each multi-race wager ending with the race—double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, etc. If you want to find the payoff for a double bet relying on #4 to win the final leg, just locate where the “#4” row and the “double” column intersect—the appropriate payoff will be listed.

Probable payoffs are a bit trickier to read. You’ll be presented with a grid of numbers: on the left is a column listing the program numbers of all the horses in the current race, while the top features a row containing either identical numbers (if viewing exacta probables) or different program numbers corresponding to the following race (if viewing double probables).

In the left column of program numbers, find the horse you plan to bet on top in the exacta, or to start the double. In the top row of program numbers, find the horse you plan to use for second place in the exacta, or in the second leg of the double. Now imagine lines radiating across the grid, horizontally from the left column and vertically from the top row. Where the lines generated by your two chosen numbers intersect is a dollar amount—the probable payoff for your chosen combination.

How can will-pays and probable payoffs reveal hidden betting value?

Suppose you’re waiting for Race 9, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds that serves as the concluding leg of a Pick 4 wager. Six unraced horses are entered, representing six possible outcomes, and the odds in the win pool are as follows:

#1: 5-2
#2: 6-5
#3: 15-1
#4: 8-1
#5: 9-1
#6: 3-1

Clearly, #2 is favored—perhaps he’s conditioned by a high-profile trainer, or owns a sharp series of workouts. But then you check the will-pays for the Pick 4 and uncover a different story:

#1: $141.70
#2: $283.40
#3: $1,133.60
#4: $566.80
#5: $566.80
#6: $425.10

In the Pick 4, #1 is favored over #2. This clear disagreement between the two pools is worth analyzing. Some bettors consider will-pays and probable payoffs to be a better guide to betting value than the win pool, in which case you may have discovered #1 is a well-regarded horse with a chance to upset #2.

Probable payoffs can be used much the same manner. Suppose you’re planning a Pick 3 wager beginning in Race 3. You check the probable payoffs for the double wager spanning Races 3-4, and you notice a 10-1 longshot in Race 4 is yielding the lowest of the probable payoffs. Clearly, folks are keen to support this unheralded runner, and he might be a live longshot worth including in your Pick 3.

Where can I view will-pays and probable payoffs?

Will-pays and probable payoffs are readily accessible. In addition to their frequent onscreen simulcast appearances, TwinSpires bettors can access them anytime under the “POOLS” tab of the betting platform.

Good luck with your bets!