How champion three-year-old campaigns have changed over time
Arcangelo wins the 155th Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park (Photo by Chelsea Durand/Coglianese Photos)
July 25th, 2024
Three-year-old males are arguably the brightest stars in U.S. Thoroughbred horse racing. They compete on national television in the coveted Triple Crown races—the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness (G1), and Belmont (G1), otherwise knowns as the classics—and are often awarded Horse of the Year honors.
Every year, a champion three-year-old male is crowned. But in the decades since the creation of the Eclipse Awards in 1971, the typical campaign for these champions has changed significantly.
The chart below outlines the campaigns of every champion three-year-old male of the Eclipse Award era, broken down across seven key categories.
| Year | Horse | Starts | Wins | Win % | Grade 1 starts | Grade 1 wins | Classic starts | Classic wins |
| 1971 | Canonero II | 11 | 6 | 55% | N/A | N/A | 3 | 2 |
| 1972 | Key to the Mint | 12 | 7 | 58% | N/A | N/A | 2 | 0 |
| 1973 | Secretariat | 12 | 9 | 75% | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 1974 | Little Current | 12 | 3 | 25% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 1975 | Wajima | 12 | 7 | 58% | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 1976 | Bold Forbes | 10 | 6 | 60% | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 1977 | Seattle Slew | 7 | 6 | 86% | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 1978 | Affirmed | 11 | 8 | 73% | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 1979 | Spectacular Bid | 12 | 10 | 83% | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 1970s | AVERAGE | 11 | 6.9 | 64% | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| 1980 | Temperence Hill | 17 | 8 | 47% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 1981 | Pleasant Colony | 9 | 4 | 44% | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 1982 | Conquistador Cielo | 9 | 7 | 78% | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1983 | Slew o' Gold | 12 | 5 | 42% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 1984 | Swale | 7 | 4 | 57% | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 1985 | Spend a Buck | 7 | 5 | 71% | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1986 | Snow Chief | 9 | 6 | 67% | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 1987 | Alysheba | 10 | 3 | 30% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 1988 | Risen Star | 8 | 6 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 1989 | Sunday Silence | 9 | 7 | 78% | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 1980s | AVERAGE | 9.7 | 5.5 | 59% | 5.4 | 3 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1990 | Unbridled | 11 | 4 | 36% | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 1991 | Hansel | 9 | 4 | 44% | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 1992 | A.P. Indy | 7 | 5 | 71% | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 1993 | Prairie Bayou | 8 | 5 | 63% | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 1994 | Holy Bull | 10 | 8 | 80% | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| 1995 | Thunder Gulch | 10 | 7 | 70% | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 1996 | Skip Away | 12 | 6 | 50% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 1997 | Silver Charm | 7 | 3 | 43% | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 1998 | Real Quiet | 6 | 2 | 33% | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 1999 | Charismatic | 10 | 4 | 40% | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 1990s | AVERAGE | 9 | 4.8 | 53% | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2000 | Tiznow | 9 | 5 | 56% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2001 | Point Given | 7 | 6 | 86% | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 2002 | War Emblem | 10 | 5 | 50% | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 2003 | Funny Cide | 8 | 2 | 25% | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | 7 | 6 | 86% | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 2005 | Afleet Alex | 6 | 4 | 67% | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 2006 | Bernardini | 8 | 6 | 75% | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Curlin | 9 | 6 | 67% | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2008 | Big Brown | 7 | 6 | 86% | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 2009 | Summer Bird | 9 | 4 | 44% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2000s | AVERAGE | 8 | 5 | 64% | 4.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | Lookin At Lucky | 7 | 4 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | 5 | 2 | 40% | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 2012 | I'll Have Another | 4 | 4 | 100% | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 2013 | Will Take Charge | 11 | 5 | 46% | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 2014 | California Chrome | 9 | 5 | 56% | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 2015 | American Pharaoh | 8 | 7 | 88% | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | Arrogate | 6 | 5 | 83% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | West Coast | 9 | 6 | 67% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Justify | 6 | 6 | 100% | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 2019 | Maximum Security | 8 | 6 | 75% | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2010s | AVERAGE | 7.3 | 5 | 71% | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2 | 1.2 |
| 2020 | Authentic | 7 | 5 | 71% | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2021 | Essential Quality | 7 | 5 | 71% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2022 | Epicenter | 8 | 4 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 2023 | Arcangelo | 5 | 4 | 80% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020s | AVERAGE | 6.75 | 4.5 | 68% | 3.75 | 2 | 1.75 | 0.75 |
The chart reveals many noteworthy takeaways:
Total starts have decreased sharply
Today’s champion three-year-old males run less frequently than their forebears from decades past. In the 1970s, it was commonplace for champion sophomores to run 10 or more times, and the average came out to 11 starts. The average has fallen with every passing decade and is currently 6.75 for the 2020s.
Grade 1 starts have fallen steadily
Related to the drop in total starts is a steady decrease in the average number of Grade 1 races contested by champion three-year-old males. The peak of 6.6 came during the 1970s (races were first graded in 1973, so data isn’t available for 1971 and 1972). The average has fallen every decade since and stands at 4.3 for the 2020s.
Total wins have decreased, but win percentages have increased
Back in the 1970s, the average champion three-year-old male won 6.9 races, the highest tally in our dataset. By the 1980s this had dropped to 5.5 wins. For the next 30 years, the average hovered steady between 4.8 and 5.0 wins, but in the 2020s it’s dropped again to 4.5 wins.
However, these drops are small compared to the decrease in number of starts, so win percentages have been increasing in recent years. The champions of the 2010s compiled the highest average win percentage (71%), followed closely by the champions of the 2020s (68%).
Grade 1 wins have fallen by half
The champions of the 1970s were an illustrious group, as evidenced by their average number of Grade 1 wins: 4.1. Again, that’s the high water mark in our dataset. The number of Grade 1 wins dropped by held more or less steady at an average of 2.7 to 3.0 during the 1980s through the 2010s, but for the 2020s it’s decreased sharply to 2.0.
Champions less commonly contest all three classics
During the 1970s, seven out of nine champion three-year-old males started in all three Triple Crown races. Five out of 10 contested the trio during the 1980s, along with eight out of 10 in the 1990s and seven out of 10 in the 2000s. For these decades, the average number of Triple Crown races contested by the champion sophomores ranged from 2.2 to 2.6.
That number decreased to 2.0 during the 2010s; even a pair of Triple Crown winners (American Pharoah and Justify) couldn’t offset two champions (Arrogate and West Coast) who skipped the Triple Crown entirely. And for the 2020s the average has dipped again to 1.75, partly because not a single champion so far this decade contested all three Triple Crown races.
Number of classic wins has decreased
Powered by a trio of Triple Crown winners, the champion three-year-old males of the 1970s averaged 1.9 classic wins apiece. No other decade has come close to matching that number. From the 1980s through the 2010s, the average ranged from 1.2 to 1.5, but so far in the 2020s it’s plunged to 0.75, with none of the champions so far this decade winning more than one Triple Crown race.
Conclusions
Since the 1970s, the length and breadth of an average champion three-year-old male campaign has diminished. The average number of starts has fallen by approximately four races since the 1970s, from 11 down to 6.75.
This decrease in starts has had a trickle-down effect across many other categories. Even the Triple Crown races, for all their prestige, have lost some luster—only one champion three-year-old male in the last eight years has contested all three races. And whereas 23 out of 39 champions (59%) from the 1970s through the 2000s won two or more Triple Crown races, that number has dropped to four out of 14 (29%) since the 2010s.
But the champions of today are superior in one respect: win rates. The champions of the 1970s averaged 64% wins from starts, a standard the champions of the 1980s (59%) and 1990s (53%) couldn’t match. But the champions of the 2000s climbed back up to 64%, and the champions of the 2010s reached a lofty 71% win rate. The 2020s champions are pretty much on the same pace with a 68% win rate.
Today’s champions might not run as much, but there’s a higher chance they’ll visit the winner’s circle when they do compete. It makes for high-stakes racing: every win is more valuable, and every defeat more debilitating to championship chances.
That’s how champion three-year-old male campaigns have changed over time.
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