How Keeler Johnson will play the 2024 Kentucky Oaks
The Twin Spires at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Media/Churchill Downs)
Some years, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs features one or two fillies who are clearly better than the rest. That’s not the case in Friday’s ultra-competitive 150th renewal of the Oaks.
The 1 1/8-mile race has drawn an incredibly deep field of three-year-old fillies. Viable win contenders abound, and splitting them isn’t easy. This is why, instead of spreading wide with a bunch of fillies, I’m going to take a stand and focus on #11 Ways and Means (5-1).
Ways and Means is a filly I’m confident will move forward in the Oaks. The Chad Brown trainee crushed her debut at Saratoga last summer and followed up with a troubled runner-up finish in the Spinaway (G1), from which she emerged with an injury.
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Seven months later, Ways and Means returned to action in the March 30 Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Making her two-turn debut, Ways and Means ran into early trouble and got squeezed back off the pace. Then she unleashed a big middle move to engage the leaders in a duel around the far turn. She won the battle, but lost the war, as stretch-running #12 Power Squeeze (12-1) came running late to beat Ways and Means by one length.
On the bright side, Ways and Means pulled 5 3/4 lengths clear of the rest and earned a respectable 94 Brisnet Speed rating. She’s cranked out fast workouts since then, including a bullet four furlongs in :46 1/5, and it’s important to note Brown wins at a 29% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff. In other words, all signs suggest Ways and Means will improve meaningfully off the Gulfstream Park Oaks, opening the door for victory at Churchill Downs.
RELATED: Tipsheet: 2024 Kentucky Oaks
I’m enticed by the 5-1 morning line odds available on Ways and Means, so my primary play will be a straightforward win bet. Assuming those odds hold up, a $30 win bet will return $180.
Come race day, I may also tackle exactas and/or trifectas using some mix of #5 Thorpedo Anna (5-1), #8 Tarifa (7-2), #13 Just F Y I (9-2), #14 Leslie’s Rose (4-1), and even longshots like #3 Where’s My Ring (15-1) and #6 Lemon Muffin (30-1), but I’ll need to narrow down the number of fillies I play in order to boost the potential return on investment.
Regardless of how my exacta/trifecta strategy unfolds, I’ll definitely play a Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby double using #17 Fierceness (5-2), #2 Sierra Leone (3-1), and #4 Catching Freedom (8-1) in the Derby. I’ll emphasize the presumably lower-paying doubles ending with Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
RELATED: Tipsheet: 2024 Kentucky Derby
Keeler Johnson’s Kentucky Oaks wagers
- $30 to win on #11 Ways and Means
- $8 Oaks/Derby Double: 11 with 2,17 ($16)
- $4 Oaks/Derby Double: 11 with 4
Total: $50
Good luck!
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