How to bet Fonner Park's Baxter Stakes

The new Monday-through-Wednesday racing week at Fonner Park has significantly raised the profile of the small Nebraska racetrack, and the dearth of stakes action across the country this week means Fonner’s $10,000 Baxter S. on Tuesday figures to attract an outsized amount of attention.

The 6-furlong dash for 3-year-olds has attracted seven starters, with #2 Kat Dude the 2-1 morning-line favorite. There’s plenty to like about this Marissa Black-trained son of First Dude, who demonstrated enough class to win a $25,000 maiden claiming race sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Sam Houston.

But Kat Dude’s initial run at Fonner didn’t yield much success. He was beaten 15 1/2 lengths in a 6-furlong allowance race March 24, which earned a modest, 64 Brisnet Speed rating. Even Kat Dude’s peak figure of 71 looks a bit light for the Baxter. Several of his rivals have posted faster figures.

One of those formidable rivals is Kat Dude’s stablemate, #6 Ye Be Judged, my strong preference among the two Black trainees. Ye Be Judged has run twice against good company at Fonner, where he finished second in his Feb. 23 debut sprinting 4 furlongs and won a similar race March 6 in gate-to-wire fashion. Next-out maiden winners #5 Yayasgotmoregame and #7 Backchatter are among the horses Ye Be Judged defeated with ease in his first two starts.

Ye Be Judged will stretch out in distance for the Baxter, but his pedigree holds promise for handling at least 6 furlongs. With Brisnet Speed ratings of 75 and 76, Ye Be Judged is already fast enough to win the Baxter, and Black (who strikes at a 24% rate in non-graded stakes races) has enlisted hot jockey Jake Olesiak to ride. Over the last 60 days, Black and Olesiak have gone 3-for-5 together.

Assuming Ye Be Judged’s 6-1 morning-line odds hold up, a large win bet will be in order. We’ll also key him on top in the trifecta, while using Yayasgotmoregame, Backchatter, and #4 Texas Troubador underneath.

$28 to win on #6 Ye Be Judged
$2 trifecta: 6 with 4,5,7 with 4,5,7 ($12)

Good luck!