How to bet Gulfstream's mandatory-payout $450,474 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson takes a race-by-race look at Saturday’s mandatory-payout $450,474 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover at Gulfstream Park, which is expected to feature a final pool in excess of $3 million.

Race 5: $20,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#8 Rosa Star (6-1) has been running well against tougher $35,000 claiming company on turf, but her 0-for-3 record on synthetic is a cause for pause. For backup, we’ll consider #11 Quiet Strength (9-2), who ran third over this track and class level on Oct. 23, and #4 Katiesdreamgirl (6-1), stretching out off a fifth-place finish sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs for a $35,000 tag six days ago.

Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs)

Hot trainer Saffie Joseph wins at a 20% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, so we’ll single #8 Illogical Love (4-1), whose sire—champion juvenile Classic Empire—is responsible for a lofty 28% winners from first-time starters.

Race 7: $20,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta)

#8 Pearlescent (3-1) obliterated a $10,000 claimer over this track and distance by 9 1/4 lengths last month, but stepping up in class is a question mark. #5 Midnight Bella (7-2) is a logical alternative while dropping out of tougher allowance races, and #10 Wonder Blondy (8-1) is worth including after rallying to finish second in a slow-paced $20,000 claimer at Gulfstream last month.

Race 8: $6,250 Claiming (one mile)

In a race not exactly stuffed with speed, #5 Malibu Max (6-1), #6 Kramden (5-1), and #8 Here Comes Bullet (12-1) have the tactical speed to work out favorable trips. But they’re hardly standouts in this competitive field; #4 Doctor D J (4-1) and #3 Mr Tito’s (3-1) also have the form lines and Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge.

Race 9: $20,000 Starter Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta)

#1 Centsless Drama (3-1), #5 Katz a Dream (7-2), and #7 Appointed (9-2) have all posted 80+ Brisnet Speed ratings in recent victories over the Gulfstream Tapeta. They bring contrasting running styles the mix, and one of the three figures to prevail on Saturday.

Race 10: $12,500 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

There’s barely an ounce of speed in this two-turn claimer, which could lend an advantage to #1 Timmy M. (9-2). The son of Morning Line ran strongly over this track and class level last month, tracking a slow pace before rallying to finish second by half a length. But #8 Golden Decision (5-1) finished just 1 1/4 lengths behind in third place, and capable turf campaigner #7 Flowmotion (4-1) has shown tactical speed on his best day.

20-cent Rainbow Pick 6: 4,8,11 with 8 with 5,8,10 with 3,4,5,6,8 with 1,5,7 with 1,7,8 ($81)

Good luck!