How to bet the 2019 Blue Grass Stakes

The $1 million Blue Grass Stakes (G2) will be run on Saturday as race 10 at Keeneland going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. The field might not have a superstar in it but a full starting gate of 14 have been entered. SOMELIKEITHOWBROWN (#1) (10-1) has shown already that he can run well on firm turf, yielding turf and synthetic tracks so the switch to fast dirt should not be that big a deal for the son of Big Brown who is out of a Tapit mare. He has good early speed and continues through the lane with good energy. Tyler Gaffalione returns for trainer Mike Maker. VEKOMA (#2) (9-5) won his first two career starts, including the Nashua Stakes (G3), going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. Off for four months, he returned with first-time Lasix in his two-turn debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and was a good third. The son of Candy Ride should be improved second start off the layoff and he draws inside with new rider Javier Castellano. SIGNALMAN (#3) (5-1) was a good second in his two-turn debut behind a speedy winner in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1). He came back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and was a good third from post 13. He finished up his juvenile season with a sharp win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) but his return to the races in the Fountain of Youth was poor. Trainer Ken McPeek is desperate for Kentucky Derby (G1) eligibility points and has drilled this colt hard in the morning. MARKET KING (#4) (20-1) broke his maiden in his two-turn debut at Oaklawn Park while making his fifth career start. He came back and showed good speed before getting run down in a six-furlong allowance event then held well in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) where he held on for third after Omaha Beach and Game Winner passed him on the far turn. CHESS CHIEF (#5) (30-1) took five starts to break his maiden, which he did at Fair Grounds going two turns for the first time. Other than Dallas Stewart’s record in big races at long odds, I don’t see anything to recommend. DREAM MAKER (#6) (12-1) looked good when he broke his maiden first time out going 5 1/2 furlongs but that only meant he had to face top company. He was no match for Grade 1 foes in his next two starts and was given four months off before returning at Fair Grounds with a sharp allowance win. Last out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), he lost all chance at 7-2 after being bumped and steadied. ADMIRE (#7) (15-1) broke his maiden second time out in his two-turn debut then shipped to New York 10 weeks later where he trained for the Withers Stakes (G3), finishing fifth in that contest. His seventh last out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) was not that bad but he never threatened. Unless trainer Dale Romans has him perfect third start off the layoff, I don’t see him being a factor in here. WIN WIN WIN (#8) (7-2) has yet to run a bad race for Mike Trombetta. He was kept to sprinting last year so his first start this year was the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, where he romped to a 7 1/4-length win in very fast time. In the Tampa Bay Derby, his two-turn debut, he rallied five wide to get up for third behind the classy Tacitus, and with a better trip he would have been a lot closer. Trombetta wins 21 percent second-time going long and Win Win Win gets Irad Ortiz Jr. back aboard. SIR WINSTON (#9) (15-1) won the Display Stakes on the Tapeta at Woodbine going two turns when blinkers were added for the first time. He raced evenly in his next two starts after being shuffled back from inside posts so the only chance he has in here is for Julien Leparoux to get him involved early. LUCKY LEE (#10) (20-1) broke his maiden second time out in his two-turn debut at Parx Racing then he came back there to beat allowance foes by six lengths in good time. That earned him a start in the Withers Stakes but he faded after pressing the pace. SO ALIVE (#11) (15-1) broke his maiden on a muddy, sealed track at Keeneland first time out then did nothing on a sloppy, sealed track going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. Trainer Todd Pletcher added blinkers next time out and the bay colt beat allowance foes in decent time at Tampa Bay Downs. However, he then was a distant third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) when he fell far behind early. Pletcher has worked him hard at his home base of Palm Beach Downs but the Kentucky-bred colt will have to improve at least five lengths to have any chance. PARSIMONY (#12) (20-1) is still a maiden after eight starts. The first seven came on dirt and turf in California then trainer Doug O’Neill shipped him to Oaklawn Park, where he was badly outrun in the Rebel Stakes at 78-1. MOONSTER (#13) (30-1) broke his maiden second time out going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs, where he beat subsequent U.A.E. Derby (G2) winner Plus Que Parfait. He did nothing in his next five starts but improved a bit in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) last out. Throw in post 13 and you need at least 50-1 to consider him. AQUADINI (#14) (30-1) did nothing in his career debut in a turf sprint at Fair Grounds with blinkers. He went back to the dirt without blinkers next out and broke his maiden by over 5 3/4 lengths two starts later going two turns. The son of noted dirt sire Bernardini showed high speed before weakening last out in good time and will have to show it again to have a chance from this far outside post. ANALYSIS Great betting races usually means hard betting races and this year’s Blue Grass is especially tough. I am very comfortable with my top three choices and will try to get some value out of them. WAGER Win #8 Trifecta Part Wheel #1 and #8 with #1, #2, #3, #8, #11, #14 with #1, #2, #3, #8, #11, #14 PHOTO: Win Win Win captures the Pasco Stakes under jockey Julien Pimentel at Tampa Bay Downs on January 19, 2019 (c) SV Photography