How to bet the 2019 Iowa Derby

Although the $250,000 Iowa Derby lost its graded stakes status a couple years ago, that hasn’t prevented the 2019 edition from attracting a large and competitive field.

A dozen 3-year-olds will battle over 1 1/16 miles in the Friday test at Prairie Meadows, including four proven stakes winners and just as many who have placed at the stakes level. After reviewing the field, I believe #7 Visitant is the horse to beat.

Based in California with trainer John Martin, Visitant showed plenty of promise in his first four starts over the Tapeta track at Golden Gate Fields, where he won three times and missing by just a half-length in the California Derby. In his best performance, Visitant posted a 91 Beyer when he rallied to defeat One Bad Boy in the one-mile Alcatraz Stakes at Golden Gate Fields, and One Bad Boy came right back to win the $1 million Queen’s Plate Stakes at Woodbine.

Following this promising start on Tapeta, Visitant switched to dirt and jumped up in class for the 1 1/16-mile Affirmed Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park. While he wasn’t quite up to defeating the Bob Baffert-trained duo of Mucho Gusto and Roadster (both previous graded stakes winners), Visitant was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths for victory and didn’t run poorly by any means.

What’s nice about Visitant is his ability to rate. The son of Ghostzapper has tactical speed—he set the pace in the Affirmed—but he also rallied from five lengths back to win the Alcatraz and has been quite effective as a mid-pack closer.

This could be beneficial in the Iowa Derby, because there are several speedy types in the field, including #1 Winning Number, #2 Proverb, #6 Top Line Growth and #11 Mr Money Bags. If a quick pace ensues, Visitant can bide his time before rallying in the homestretch.

I’m also very interested in #10 Night Ops, who has sandwiched sharp maiden and allowance wins around a runner-up effort in the Oaklawn Invitational Stakes, where he was beaten just a neck by eventual Preakness Stakes (G1) fourth-place finisher Laughing Fox. Trained by Brad Cox, Night Ops brings competitive Beyer speed figures into the Iowa Derby field and is another runner who would benefit from a contested pace.

I’ll key Visitant and Night Ops in the exacta and trifecta, playing both in equal strength:

$3 exacta: 7,10 with 7,10 ($6) $2 exacta: 7,10 with 5,11 ($8) $1 trifecta: 7,10 with 7,10 with 2,5,6,11 ($8) $1 trifecta: 7,10 with 2,5,6,11 with 7,10 ($8)

Good luck!