How to bet the 2019 Travers Stakes

With division leader Maximum Security, champion 2-year-old Game Winner and classic winners Country House, War of Will and Sir Winston all absent from Saturday’s $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, the Midsummer Derby is shaping up to be a strange race.

There are some quality graded stakes winners among the dozen entrants in the Travers, but none who would rank among the division elite. Someone is guaranteed to secure their first grade 1 win Saturday, because none of the Travers runners have prevailed at the highest level.

The horse who has come closest is the 5-2 morning line favorite #6 Tacitus, the runner-up by a length in the Belmont Stakes (G1). A wide trip likely cost Tacitus victory over ground-saving winner Sir Winston, and the gray was again compromised by a tough trip in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga last month, when he stumbled at the start and had to wait in traffic on the far turn before he finisheds second.

Tacitus could rebound with a clean trip in the Travers, but he’ll be racing with blinkers for the first time, which introduces a new question to consider. The addition of blinkers could potentially help Tacitus focus and take a step forward, but there’s also a chance they could backfire and get him too keyed up to succeed in a testing, 1 1/4-mile race.

I’m surprised more aren’t considering #7 Mucho Gusto as a viable upset candidate. Trained by Bob Baffert, who has nabbed two of the last three editions of the Travers with Arrogate and West Coast, Mucho Gusto is the fastest horse from a Beyer speed figure perspective. This four-time grade 3 winner threw down a 100 Beyer when he finished second in the Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth last month, when he was beaten just a length by Maximum Security.

But Mucho Gusto has yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles, and some of his defeats suggest he could have trouble stretching out in distance. He did weaken in the final furlong of the Haskell after he reached even terms with Maximum Security. But there’s almost no speed on paper in this Travers field, so Mucho Gusto should sit a perfect trip stalking a slow pace, and Baffert is showing confidence with his last-minute decision to send the colt to Saratoga. This son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man might just be getting good at the right time.

Acknowledging that almost anyone could hit the board in this wide-open race, I’ll employ an unusual betting strategy. In addition to placing a small win bet on Mucho Gusto (6-1 seems like a fair price), I’ll key Tacitus and Mucho Gusto equally in the trifecta, requiring one to win and the other to hit the board in order to cash. For the remaining slot, I’ll use “ALL” in hopes of catching a big longshot.

$10 to win on #7 Mucho Gusto $0.50 trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with ALL ($10) $0.50 trifecta: 6,7 with ALL with 6,7 ($10)

Good luck!