How to bet the 2019 UAE Derby

The $2.5 UAE Derby (G2) will be run on Saturday morning as Race 5 in Dubai at Meydan Racecourse. The huge purse and the same amount of Kentucky Derby (G1) eligibility points as the other major prep races have attracted a field of 14 going 1 3/16 miles. Post time is expected to be 10:05 a.m. (ET). Hopefully the rain this week will have the main track nice and tight without the usual kickback. WALKING THUNDER (#1) (5-1) won his first three career starts going one turn then was a well-beaten second in the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) last out. He stretches out to two turns and draws post 1 on Saturday. Frankie Dettori picks up the mount on the son of Violence who has already proven he likes the track and now has to prove he can handle the distance. He must break well to keep from getting shuffled back into traffic. JAHBATH (#2) (6-1) was beaten a neck in his career debut on the turf then he came back to win four straight races on all-weather tracks. Synthetic track form does well on the Meydan main track, and even though he doesn’t have much dirt in his pedigree, he is bred to get the distance while stalking the pace. GOLDEN JAGUAR (#3) (15-1) broke his maiden in his career debut going five furlongs on the dirt then he came back to win a $100,000 trial here on the turf going seven furlongs. He missed by a neck last out going a one-turn mile on the turf in the $175,000 Meydan Classic and now goes back to the dirt. The son of Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Animal Kingdom draws well and gets a major rider switch to Oisin Murphy. He has yet to break well from the gate and that could cost him in here. PLUS QUE PARFAIT (#4) (15-1) was in great form while racing in Kentucky on the dirt last year, including a close second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) which turned out to be a key race. He had two starts at Fair Grounds this winter and did nothing both times. He is bred to go long and gets Jose Ortiz. DERMA LOUVRE (#5) (12-1) won three dirt races in a row in Japan before just missing there going a mile on a muddy track. He was a good third at Tokyo last out as the 7-5 favorite and ships here for Hirofumi Toda. Japanese horses have run well at Meydan before and Derma Louvre is by American sire Pyro. DIVINE IMAGE (#6) (2-1) broke her maiden by six lengths in her career debut on an all-weather track at Chelmsford in England last December. Trainer Charlie Appleby brought her here for the UAE 1000 Guineas, but she was a well-beaten second. The daughter of Scat Daddy came right back to win the UAE Oaks (G3) and then crushed males last out going this distance in fast time when winning the Al Bastakiya Stakes. SUPERIOR (#7) (12-1) barely broke his maiden here first time out going a one-turn mile. In November and December, the competition here at Meydan is pretty well and he came back to lose by 19 lengths going this distance next time out. In the Al Bastakiya, he was a distant second behind Divine Image. GRAY MAGICIAN (#8) (15-1) broke his maiden by 9 1/2 lengths in his two-turn debut on the dirt at Del Mar for trainer Peter Miller. He came back and was only beaten three lengths in the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park before running poorly on a sloppy track. The son of new sire Graydar bounced back some last out with a second at Laurel going a one-turn mile in the Miracle Wood Stakes and gets Joel Rosario. RAZEENA (#9) (50-1) has yet to win a race in three tries and takes on male rivals. The daughter of Malibu Moon was an even third behind Divine Image last out but will have to improve off that effort to have any chance in here. AL HAYETTE (#10) (50-1) is a very busy filly by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Union Rags who has had four starts here already in 2019. She won the UAE 1000 Guineas Trial but then finished off the board in her last three starts. Can’t see her having any kind of chance in here. VAN BEETHOVEN (#11) (10-1) is kind of like last year’s winner Mendelsohn in that he had many starts as a two-year-old, ran in an all-weather stakes race before coming here, and is sired by Scat Daddy. We will see if he wins by a pole but at least he was a Group 2 winner in Ireland last year and was only beaten by five lengths by the European champion juvenile in his last start of 2018. Ryan Moore gets the mount back after riding Van Beethoven in all but his last start. STUBBINS (#12) (10-1) broke his maiden in a downhill turf sprint at Santa Anita then came back there to beat first-level allowance foes. Back to the sloppy dirt last out, he won by eight lengths for trainer Doug O’Neill and brings Flavien Prat with him. He would be given a better shot if he didn’t draw so far outside. SWIFT ROSE (#13) (30-1) should have a nice view of the Meydan Hotel from this post. She just missed behind favored Divine Image last out but Pat Cosgrave will have to put the pedal down hard leaving the gate and use valuable energy just to get any kind of position. MANGUZI (#14) (15-1) won the Al Bastakya Trial two starts back in good time then was no match in the Al Bastakiya last out. He has good speed but don’t see how he can work out any kind of trip from here. ANALYSIS Divine Image looks like she has these at her mercy if she can run back to her last race here. Will try to find some value underneath. WAGERS Win #6 Exacta #6 with #1, #3 and #11 Trifecta Box #1, #3, #6 and #11 PHOTO: Van Beethoven (c) Dubai Racing Club/Erika Rasmussen