How to bet the 2020 Haskell Stakes

Examining the field for Saturday’s $1 million Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park, it is not hard to conclude this 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race is a two-horse battle between #1 Dr Post (5-2) and #2 Authentic (4-5).

Authentic is favored on the morning line, at least in part because he is conditioned by trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Haskell on eight occasions. A speedy frontrunner, Authentic dominated the 1-mile Sham (G3) and 1 1/16-mile San Felipe (G2) during the winter at Santa Anita to emerge as an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1).

But Authentic looked less formidable when he stretched out over 1 1/8 miles for the Santa Anita Derby (G1). After he employed rating tactics, Authentic failed to kick on in the homestretch and settled for second place, beaten 2 3/4 lengths by the late-charging winner Honor A. P.

Considering the Santa Anita Derby was Authentic’s first start in three months, it’s possible he was short of peak fitness. But as a son of Into Mischief, out of a Mr. Greeley mare, Authentic is bred to thrive as a sprinter/miler, so it is also possible the 1 1/8 miles exposed some limitations to his stamina.

If allowed to shake loose on an uncontested lead in the Haskell, Authentic might handle 1 1/8 miles just fine. But he is unlikely to receive such a favorable setup, since four of his six rivals have shown an interest in setting or pressing the pace. The early tempo figures to be quick, and Authentic may never catch a breather after a break from post 2.

Such a scenario would favor the chances of Dr Post, who showed no difficulty traversing 1 1/8 miles in the Belmont Stakes (G1) last month, when he rallied to finish second, behind three-time Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law.

A mid-pack closer trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Haskell three times, Dr Post brings a pair of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix and figures to settle off the lead before he swoops into contention down the stretch.

Let’s play Dr Post over Authentic in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta. We’ll round out our tickets with #3 Jesus’ Team (15-1) and #7 Ny Traffic (7-2).

$15 exacta: 1 with 2
$5 trifecta: 1 with 2 with 3,7 ($10)
$2.50 superfecta: 1 with 2 with 3,7 with 3,7 ($5)
Total: $30

Good luck!