How to bet the 2020 Kentucky Oaks

With just nine fillies in the entries, the 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday at Churchill Downs has drawn its smallest field since superstar Rachel Alexandra beat half a dozen rivals in 2009.

In theory, the modest field size should make the 1 1/8-mile race easier to handicap. Indeed, three fillies appear to stand above their rivals, with #1 Swiss Skydiver (8-5), #4 Speech (5-1), and #5 Gamine (1-1) the only fillies listed at less than 15-1 on the morning line.

Surely it won’t be too difficult to secure a profit betting a race with just three main contenders. But boxing them in the exacta and trifecta won’t yield particularly lucrative payoffs, and splitting these short-priced favorites is the tricky part.

All three bring strong form lines to the equation. Swiss Skydiver is a four-time graded stakes winner who crushed the 1 1/4-mile Alabama (G1) three weeks ago. Speech broke a track record when dominating the 1 1/16-mile Ashland (G1), and Gamine shattered records in the 1-mile Acorn (G1), before romping home an uncontested winner of the 7-furlong Test (G1).

Swiss Skydiver and Gamine appear pretty evenly matched on paper. Both are fast front-runners with career-best 109 Brisnet Speed ratings to their credit, and both finished ahead of Speech during races in the spring. Seeing Swiss Skydiver and Gamine square off for supremacy in the Kentucky Oaks will be a major highlight of the week.

Forced to choose between the two of them, I have to side with Gamine. Conditioned by three-time Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Bob Baffert, Gamine was absolutely breathtaking in the Acorn, crushing her rivals by 18 3/4 lengths in the stakes-record time of 1:32.55 — less than two-fifths of a second off the American record set by Dr. Fager in 1968.

Gamine’s win in the Test was almost as impressive, considering she flew home the final three furlongs in a rapid :35.69 to record a final time of 1:20.83, which missed a 42-year-old track record by just 0.43.

Gamine’s powerful finishing speed suggests she’ll have no trouble handling 1 1/8 miles in the Kentucky Oaks. Since she has drawn outside Swiss Skydiver, Gamine figures to enjoy a more relaxed journey. If Swiss Skydiver wants to set the pace from the rail, Gamine can settle into an early pressing position before turning up the heat.

If the pace duel between Swiss Skydiver and Gamine gets intense, Speech will have an opportunity to settle behind the speed and come running late to steal a top-two finish. Let’s bet the race accordingly, playing Gamine on top of trifecta tickets, with Swiss Skydiver and Speech underneath. We’ll also toss the deep-closing Indiana Oaks (G3) winner #7 Shedaresthedevil (20-1) into the mix on a smaller ticket.

$15 trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 1,4 ($30)
$5 trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 7 ($10)
Total: $40

Good luck!