How to bet the 2021 Nearctic Stakes

A strong field of 10 will travel six panels on the Woodbine turf in Sunday’s C$250,000 Nearctic S. (G2). I will look outside in the well-matched field and side with a mare to upset the boys on this occasion.

Group 1 heroine #10 Jolie Olimpica has run twice with mixed results since moving to the barn of Josie Carroll, with a sharp tally in the Nassau S. (G2) preceding an unplaced showing in the King Edward S. (G2). The chestnut mare will revert to sprinting on Sunday, and I love the cut back in distance for the talented daughter of Drosselmeyer.

Jolie Olimpica has run some of her best races when dashing on the lawn, and she seems poised for a peak showing in her third race off the layoff. The lightly raced five-year-old has been training in swift fashion of late, and the outside draw will give pilot Joel Rosario many options in the early stages of the race. She can track from third or fourth to the top of the lane before taking command inside the final furlong.

I will tab a few late runners to crash the exotics party. King Edward victor #3 Olympic Runner didn’t factor in his latest outing for conditioner Mark Casse, but the Gio Ponti gelding will surely appreciate the move to six panels on Sunday. The one-run closer has been first or second in half of his 24 lifetime performances, which includes a pair of big efforts on the course this campaign. Rafael Hernandez will be up.

#7 Lucky Curlin, also from the Casse shedrow, has run a pair of fine races from as many local tries, and he has the turn of foot that will play well in this particular contest. The versatile Curlin gelding was a nice allowance winner on the surface two prior, and he has every reason to take another step forward in his third outing since November. Irad Ortiz riding adds to his appeal.

Josie Carroll’s #5 Avie’s Flatter is a classy five-year-old who bagged a Grade 2 race on the course this season, and the son of Flatter is seemingly always in the mix late whenever he goes to post. The Ontario-bred is an obvious top-three inclusion in my opinion.

Nearctic Wagers

• $20 win and place #10 Jolie Olimpica ($40)
• $5 trifecta key 10 with 3,5,7 ($30)