How to bet the 2021 Suburban Stakes

A field of six will travel 1 1/4 miles over the main surface at Belmont Park in Saturday’s $400,000 Suburban S. (G2). What the field lacks in quantity, it surely makes up for in quality, led by recent Dubai World Cup (G1) star #4 Mystic Guide. The Ghostzapper colt has taken the next step in 2021 with a pair of superb and eye-catching tallies, but I think that he will face his toughest test of the season on Saturday.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, #6 Happy Saver got the best of Mystic Guide in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in October over Big Sandy going 10 furlongs. The 5-for-5 son of Super Saver commenced his much anticipated four-year-old campaign with an allowance victory on the oval to prepare for Saturday, and the chestnut has trained well in the interim, as well.

Happy Saver had an ideal prep for this tilt, and I believe that he possesses a hint of a tactical edge in the contest, too. The Kentucky-bred is good out of the gate and I think he will take the early lead despite drawing widest in the cast. Pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. is brilliant on the front end, and my feeling is that Happy Saver will have the edge at every call to move his sterling mark to 6-for-6.

Mystic Guide is no slouch by any means and will be a formidable foe with anything resembling his best effort. The Mike Stidham pupil had a fine sophomore campaign topped by a smart triumph in the Jim Dandy S. (G2), and he kicked off this season with a dominant victory in the Razorback H. (G3) at Oaklawn Park. His win in Dubai left no doubt as to who was best on that day, but I have a slight fear that he may be a bit short following his trek back from the desert. Luis Saez will guide the Godolphin homebred.

There is not a lot of value to be had with the top pair, so finding the third-place finisher is a must for me. I will give that nod to James Bond’s #3 Prioritize. The gelded son of Tizway showed marked improvement when switching to the dirt in 2020 and proved his worth when a nice third in the Woodward S. (G1) in September. The six-year-old will run all day, and his prep race for this endeavor was not awful at Pimlico, either. Joel Rosario has the assignment.

Suburban Wagers

• $30 trifecta 6 with 4 with 3 ($30)
• $5 superfecta 6 with 4 with all with 3 ($15)