How to bet the 2022 Suburban Stakes

A compact field of five will travel 10 furlongs over Big Sandy in the $400,000 Suburban S. (G2) on Saturday. Conditioner Todd Pletcher has a pair of contenders in the event, and I believe that his duo will have a major impact in the contest.

#1 Untreated is lightly raced and not as accomplished as most of the others in the cast, but the talented colt should control things from the start in his Belmont debut under Joel Rosario. By Nyquist, the four-year-old has been in solid form as of late, with a good third-place result in the Pimlico Special (G3) last time out, which followed a close runner-up performance in the Excelsior S. at Aqueduct.

Untreated draws well on the fence and comes in with a solid string of morning drills, led by a bullet morning move two works back. If the bay gets away from the gate cleanly and establishes moderate early splits, I feel he will be tough to pass late. And despite the small field, a decent price is expected on the upset selection.

#5 Dynamic One has progressed nicely in his four-year-old campaign, and the ‘other’ Pletcher pupil will surely be dangerous with a top showing. The well-related son of Union Rags has won or placed in each of his three outings in 2022, capped by a strong victory in the Blame S. at Churchill Downs most recently. The chestnut colt has no early speed, but he does possess a fine turn of foot and should love the Belmont oval while making his local bow.

The colt comes off of a trio of very good morning moves in anticipation of this test, and I expect him to round into contention approaching the turn for home on Saturday. Irad Ortiz will be in the silks atop the talented win player.

Dual Grade 3 victor #4 First Captain is surely good enough to win this, but I expect the twice-beaten son of Curlin to be overbet on this occasion. He will be included in some of my exotics, however.

Suburban Wagers

• $20 win: #1 Untreated ($20)
• $10 exacta: box 1-5 ($20)
• $5 trifecta: key 1 with 4, 5 ($10)