How to bet the 2023 Great Lady M Stakes

Los Alamitos is celebrating Independence Day with the holiday’s lone graded stakes: the $200,000 Great Lady M (G2) for fillies and mares dashing 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt.

The morning line favorite is #2 Eda (5-2), a Bob Baffert trainee with a five-race win streak under her belt. Winner of the 2021 Starlet (G1) and 2022 Santa Ysabel (G3), Eda is the most accomplished filly in the Great Lady M field and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Juan Hernandez, a 29% winner teaming up with Baffert over the last two months.

But Eda had to work hard in her 2023 debut. Returning from a 14-month layoff in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Santa Anita, Eda carved out the pace, but drifted out down the homestretch and just barely held on to win by a head. The result was a 91 Brisnet Speed rating, lower than the numbers she posted in the Starlet (99) and Santa Ysabel (95).

Eda may prove vulnerable while returning to the graded stakes ranks, so let’s try to beat her with the red-hot #1 Elm Drive (7-2). Third in the 2022 Great Lady M as a three-year-old, Elm Drive has upped her game to a new level at age four. She kicked off 2023 with a win in an off-the-turf renewal of the Monrovia (G3) at Santa Anita, after which she tackled the Santa Anita lawn and took the Mizdirection S.

With Brisnet Speed ratings of 93 and 95 under her belt this year, Elm Drive is fast enough to vie for victory in the Great Lady M. She enters off a pair of blazing five-furlong workouts at Santa Anita, and it’s worth noting she beat Eda by a head in the 2021 Sorrento (G2) at Del Mar.

#7 Awake At Midnyte (3-1) wasn’t a match for Elm Drive when fourth in the Monrovia, but she’s placed at the Grade 1 level and looms as a logical contender for the minor awards. Similar respect must be afforded to #9 Dance to the Music (6-1), a Grade 1-placed filly who recently ended a losing streak by delivering a one-length score in Santa Anita’s Desert Stormer (G3).

Great Lady M wagers

• $22 to win on #1 Elm Drive
• $3 Trifecta: 1 with 2,7,9 with 2,7,9 ($18)
  Total: $40

Good luck!