How to bet the 2024 Affirmed Success Stakes

A compact group of five New York-bred runners will go six furlongs on the Aqueduct dirt in Thursday’s $100,000 Affirmed Success S. The opening-day feature of the Belmont at the Big A card attracted a well-matched group in what could be a good betting event despite the size of the field.

#3 Sheriff Bianco (7-2) sports a fine 6-4-2-0 mark at the distance and has been in the top three in 13 of his 14 races on the oval, as well. The six-year-old will be making his first run of the season and has worked forwardly in advance of the dash for a barn that does good work off the bench. The Speightster gelding has the ideal running style to track the tempo from third behind dueling leaders early on, and he will be well placed while fresh coming off of a swift half-mile move most recently. Jose Lezcano will be in the controls.

Conditioner Todd Pletcher has #2 Donegal Surges (5-2) going so well right now and the colt appears to be ready for the jump into the stakes ranks in this heat. The son of Candy Ride has earned excellent Brisnet Speed numbers of 96 and 99 in his pair of wins in succession as of late, and the stout late runner really packs a punch in the lane, too. Kendrick Carmouche retains the mount atop the bay and will take him back some in the early stages of the dash before asking him for his best in the lane.

Multiple stakes winner #1 Rotknee (7-5) might be the one to beat from his overall body of work for conditioner Mike Maker, but I am a bit concerned about his declining Speed figures as of late. This Runhappy five-year-old has speed from the rail, four wins on the oval, as well as five tallies at six furlongs, and he comes in off the short layoff to be fresh for the tilt. If he is at his best, then the dark bay will be in the lead turning for home and hard to catch beneath Manny Franco. 

Affirmed Success wagers

• $10 Exacta: key box 3 with 1,2 ($40)
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 2 ($10)