How to bet the Arlington Million Day $5,978 Pick 8 carryover

Saturday is Arlington Million Day at Arlington Park, a spectacular afternoon featuring eight stakes (three of them Grade 1s) across a 10-race card.

Seven of the stakes are featured in the Pick 8, which boasts a carryover of $5,978. If you’re keen to play the 20-cent wager, we’re ready to help with a race-by-race analysis and a $96 proposed ticket:

Race 3: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs)

#2 Can’t Hide From Me (9-5) is the morning line favorite off three straight runner-up efforts at Arlington, but he’s been racing 1 1/16 miles and isn’t guaranteed to thrive while cutting back in trip. We’ll try to beat him with #3 Merlin’s Song (5-1) and #4 Lost in Manhattan (3-1), tried-and-true sprinters with competitive form over this class level.

Race 4: Addison Cammack Memorial S. (six furlongs)

#8 Richiesinthehouse (8-5) didn’t get the best trip when finishing seventh in Arlington’s June 26 Hanshin S. over a one-mile distance, arguably farther than his best. In contrast, Richiesinthehouse boasts an 8-for-10 record sprinting six furlongs, so cutting back in distance can help him rebound for leading trainer Larry Rivelli. But the undefeated #6 Locamotor (6-1) hasn’t been headed in three starts against easier company, and Arlington veteran #4 What’s Up Dude (4-1) can pick up the pieces if a hot pace unfolds.

Race 5: Mike Spellman Memorial S. (1 1/16 miles on turf)

#2 Bramble Queen (1-1) owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings and is dropping in class and distance off a third-place effort in the 1 3/16-mile Modesty S. (G3) at Arlington. Racing 1 1/16 miles should be more suitable for the six-year-old mare, who will be ridden by Jareth Loveberry.

Race 6: Pucker Up S. (G3, 1 1/8 miles on turf)

#4 Flown (3-1) and #5 Double Blessed (8-1) were separated by a length when rallying to finish third in the Hatoof S. over this course last month. Throw in the pace-compromised Boiling Springs S. runner-up #3 Shantisara (4-1) and the graded stakes-placed #1 Oyster Box (7-2), and we should have the Pucker Up S. covered.

Race 7: Beverly D. S. (G1, 1 3/16 miles on turf)

Front-running #2 Mean Mary (9-5) is the morning line choice after wiring the Gallorette S. (G3) and New York S. (G2) to kick off 2021. But we’ll back her up with the exciting sophomore #4 Santa Barbara (2-1), who overcame significant traffic to rally and win the Belmont Oaks (G1) last month.

Race 8: Bruce D. S. (G1, one mile on turf)

#2 Tango Tango Tango (2-1) won the American Derby over this course last month, but he isn’t necessarily a lock to win. #1 Therideofalifetime (6-1) and #6 Point Me By (3-1) have run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, while Ellis Park maiden winner #4 Ginsburned (5-1) and accomplished stakes performer #9 Like a Saltshaker (12-1) have upside for improvement.

Race 9: Mr. D. S. (G1, 1 1/4 miles on turf)

#3 Domestic Spending (6-5) has won three straight Grade 1 races for trainer Chad Brown, including a powerful 2 3/4-length score in the 1 1/4-mile Manhattan S. (G1). He’ll stick to the same distance for the Mr. D. (a race Brown has won on four occasions) and looms as a logical single.

Race 10: Black Tie Affair S. (1 1/16 miles on turf)

#4 Another Mystery (8-5) has placed in multiple graded stakes, including the 1 3/16-mile Arlington S. (G3) over this course last month. But he may be more effective over longer trips than 1 1/16 miles, so the up-and-coming Arlington allowance winner #2 Fly Nightly (9-2) may have an upset chance for high-percentage trainer Brittany Vanden Berg.

20-cent Pick 8: 3,4 with 4,6,8 with 2 with 1,3,4,5 with 2,4 with 1,2,4,6,9 with 3 with 2,4 ($96)

Good luck!