How to bet the Ashland Stakes

With three-time graded stakes winner Swiss Skydiver slated to face males in the Blue Grass (G2), Saturday’s $400,000 Ashland (G1) at Keeneland has come up a bit lighter than originally expected.

Of course, you won’t hear supporters of #2 Venetian Harbor (6-5) complaining. The speedy daughter of Munnings caught eyes when she broke her maiden at Santa Anita by 10 lengths. She reiterated her abundant talent when she crushed the 1-mile Las Virgenes (G2) by 9 1/4 lengths, with a 102 Brisnet Speed rating, and emerged as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

But when Venetian Harbor squared off against Swiss Skydiver in the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park, she came up 2 1/2 lengths short at the finish line. Venetian Harbor didn’t run a bad race by any means. She carved out fast fractions of :22.25, :45.43, and 1:09.67 but proved second best by 10 3/4 lengths, over recent Indiana Oaks (G3) winner Shedaresthedevil.

Escaping from the imposing shadow of Swiss Skydiver might be all Venetian Harbor needs to rebound in the Ashland. Trainer Richard Baltas has given Venetian Harbor 2 1/2 months to bounce back from her testing effort at Oaklawn, and she has shown her appreciation by with a pair of blazing workouts in recent weeks, including 6 furlongs in 1:10 3/5 July 4. With her terrific early speed and strong Brisnet Speed ratings, Venetian Harbor is a deserving favorite to win the Ashland and claim 100 qualification points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.

As for the rest, Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) winner #3 Bonny South (5-1), Davona Dale (G2) victor #5 Tonalist’s Shape (6-1), and Santa Anita Oaks (G2) runner-up #6 Speech (2-1) have also compiled solid résumés on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks and loom as logical contenders to round out the exotics. Speech, in particular, could be formidable, after she finished second behind Kentucky Oaks favorites Swiss Skydiver and Gamine in her last two runs.

But the up-and-coming #4 Envoutante is also worth a look for trainer Kenny McPeek, a two-time winner of the Ashland. The daughter of Uncle Mo is 2-for-3 on dirt and has demonstrated versatility in running style.

Three starts back, she won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Gulfstream in gate-to-wire fashion and earned a 100 Brisnet Speed rating. Last time out, Envoutante showed a new dimension, with a rally from off the pace to dominate a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs by 2 1/4 lengths.

Let’s emphasize Envoutante and Speech underneath Venetian Harbor in a pair of trifectas.

$7 trifecta: 2 wth 4,6 with 4,6 ($14)
$4 trifecta: 2 with 4,6 with 3,5 ($16)
Total: $30

Good luck!