How to bet the Blue Grass Stakes

There’s something for everyone in Saturday’s $600,000 Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland, a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race that will award 100 qualification points to the winner.

Want to play established Road to the Kentucky Derby veterans? Florida Derby (G1) runner-up #1 Shivaree (8-1), Arkansas Derby (G1) second-place finisher #8 Basin (8-1), Santa Anita Derby (G1) third-place runner #10 Rushie (5-1), and Lecomte (G3) winner #12 Enforceable (10-1) are all logical options.

Keen to support a filly facing colts? #7 Swiss Skydiver (3-1) has rattled off three straight graded stakes wins against some of the fleetest sophomore females in the country.

But rather than back the established stars, I’m going to side with an up-and-comer — #3 Art Collector (5-1). A son of 2006 Preakness (G1) winner Bernardini, Art Collector has shown flashes of series talent since he returned from a long layoff in May. After he rallied decisively to win a 7-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs (where he defeated stakes performers Toledo, Wrecking Crew, and Acre), Art Collector stretched out to 1 1/16 miles over the same track and claimed another allowance in eye-catching fashion.

Art Collector’s performance was stunning. After he carved out steady but unremarkable splits of :24.59, :48.43, and 1:12.46, Art Collector accelerated powerfully down the homestretch. He sprinted the final five-sixteenths of a mile in :28.89 to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths. His strong finish and fast final time (1:41.35, just 0.31 seconds off the track record) produced a 103 Brisnet Speed rating and a massive 114 Brisnet Late Pace rating.

The strength of Art Collector’s effort was reiterated when distant runner-up Shared Sense returned to win the Indiana Derby (G3) on Wednesday.

With his combination of tactical speed and versatility, Art Collector should have no trouble working out a clean trip in the Blue Grass, perhaps stalking Shivaree and Swiss Skydiver. The 1 1/8-mile distance shouldn’t be an obstacle, either. Art Collector might relish the longer trip.

Banking on the notion that Art Collector could be a star in the making, let’s bet him to win and key him on top of two trifectas, emphasizing the improving Rushie underneath.

$26 to win on #3 Art Collector
$2 trifecta: 3 with 10 with 1,2,5,7,12,13 ($12)
$2 trifecta: 3 with 1,2,5,7,12,13 with 10 ($12)
Total: $50

Good luck!