How to bet the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Dirt Mile Analysis

There will not be a shortage of pace in the tilt with a plethora of horses who prefer to be forwardly placed in their races. #10 Complexity (2-1) is my slight pick for conditioner Chad Brown. The son of Maclean’s Music can be electric on his best day, and he has really put it all together this season with a trio of fine performances, capped by a stout score in the Kelso (G2) most recently. The Kentucky-bred also has an edge in drawing outside of his main pace foes on Saturday. Jose Ortiz has the assignment.

#2 Sharp Samurai (15-1) is my top value play for the gimmicks. Trained by Mark Glatt, the ultra-consistent gelding has placed in four graded stakes races from four tries in 2020, including a strong runner-up placing in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar. Bay 6-year-old can adjust to any pace scenario on any surface, and having Irad in the silks makes him appealing to me at a price.

#5 Knicks Go (7-2) could secure a small lead in the opening stages coming off a wire-to-wire score on the surface while registering a monstrous 110 Brisnet Speed figure for Brad Cox. The Paynter colt has been superb in two starts as a 4-year-old and rates an obvious chance with something like his latest. Gray is also a Grade 1 winner on the oval after bagging the 2018 Breeders’ Futurity (G1), and I will include him in my wagers despite not being in love with his morning-line number.

Blue Grass (G2) star #1 Art Collector (6-1) and dual Grade 1 victor #4 War of Will (10-1) also makes sense in the Dirt Mile and could easily get up under the wire with a top showing. The former aced his lone prior Keeneland test to date with aplomb, while the latter figures to thrive at a distance that might be ideal for him.