How to Bet the Fountain of Youth

After a slow week on the Road to the Kentucky Derby things pick back up on Saturday in Florida with a 50-point to the winner event at Gulfstream Park.

The Fountain of Youth (G2) drew a field of 12 headlined by the return of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) favorite #5 Dennis’ Moment. The son of Tiznow makes his long awaited first start of 2020 after stumbling out of the gate and finishing dead last at Santa Anita last fall.  

Dennis’ Moment put in a memorable maiden breaking performance at Ellis Park after clipping heels and losing jockey Robby Albarado in his debut at Churchill Downs last June. He went on to win the Iroquois (G3) convincingly before his disappointing effort in Southern California ended his 2-year-old campaign. Based on his juvenile form he is the one to beat on Saturday, but he is likely to be over bet off the bench making him worth taking a stand against on top.

The top two finishers from the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man both deserve consideration and will offer better value than Dennis’ Moment. I am not convinced that #6 As Seen On Tv or #12 Chance It are serious Kentucky Derby contenders, but they have run well over this surface and appear to be training forwardly for the second start of their respective 3-year-old campaigns.

#11 Ete Indien makes his second start of the month after finishing second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull (G3). The sun of Summer Front started his career with a pair of turf tries, but has found a new home on the main track posting a pair of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings at Gulfstream Park for trainer Patrick Biancone. A repeat of either of those efforts put him squarely in the mix.

From a gambling perspective, I am most intrigued by #6 Gear Jockey. The son of Twirling Candy debuted on the dirt at Saratoga last summer. He showed tactical speed, but tired badly. From there, trainer Rusty Arnold moved the Calumet Farm homebred to the lawn for three starts, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) where he ran a solid third as a maiden.

Instead of leaving Gear Jockey on the lawn to earn his first career victory, the veteran conditioner opted to move him back to the main track in late December where he ran a much better than looks fifth. Since then, they have clearly pointed him for this race, which seems ambitious. However, my trust in these connections make me believe he is set for his best effort to date in his initial try going two turns on the dirt.

I would be surprised if Gear Jockey stepped up and won this year’s Fountain of Youth, but with Julien Leparoux taking the mount I expect him to be taken off what should be a contentious early pace. This should put him in a good position to pick up the pieces late at a big price.  

Suggested Tickets:

• $1 Trifecta Wheel:
  6+11+12 with 8 with 1+5+6+7+10+11+12 = $18

• $1 Trifecta Wheel:
  6+11+12 with 1+5+6+7+10+11+12 with 8= $18

Total Budget = $36