How to bet the Jonathan Sheppard Handicap

This week’s racing action at Saratoga kicks off with a bang on Wednesday. The opening race on the card is the $150,000 Jonathan Sheppard H. (G1), a top-level hurdle race held over the testing distance of 2 3/8 miles.

Eight horses have turned out to contest the Jonathan Sheppard, which was formerly known as the New York Turf Writers Cup. The field includes four horses trained by Keri Brion, with #3 Baltimore Bucko (5-2) the most high-profile of the quartet.

Grade 1 winner enters in peak form

A lightly raced five-year-old with just half a dozen starts under his belt, Baltimore Bucko enters the Jonathan Sheppard in peak form. After kicking off 2021 with a runner-up effort in the 2 1/4-mile Green Pastures Hurdle S. (beaten only a head after rallying from dead last), Baltimore Bucko put on an impressive front-running show in the 2 1/16-mile A.P. Smithwick Memorial (G1) at Saratoga last month, leading by daylight all the way to score by 5 3/4 lengths.

Baltimore Bucko is a logical candidate to pick up a second straight Grade 1 win in the Jonathan Sheppard. But he may face a stiff challenge from stablemate #6 The Mean Queen (2-1), a five-year-old mare with exciting credentials.

Up-and-coming mare can outrun her stablemate

After beginning her career with multiple victories in Europe, The Mean Queen shipped to the U.S. and promptly won a 2 1/8-mile allowance and the 2 1/4-mile Margaret Currey Henley S. by a minimum of 3 1/2 lengths. She was subsequently favored at odds-on to nab the 2 1/16-mile Jonathan Kiser Novice S. at Saratoga, but after leading by daylight into the stretch, The Mean Queen ducked in sharply and unseated jockey Thomas Garner.

Interestingly, Garner will remain aboard The Mean Queen in the Jonathan Sheppard, even though he rode Baltimore Bucko in the Smithwick. Garner has gone 2-for-3 (67%) riding for Brion over the last two months, and that record would surely stand at 3-for-3 if not for the incident in the Jonathan Kiser. I’ll view this as a positive sign for The Mean Queen and trust the mare to beat her more accomplished stablemate across the Saratoga finish line.

How to bet the Jonathan Sheppard

Assuming The Mean Queen’s morning line odds hold up, our first order of business will be a $20 win bet. But we’ll also play The Mean Queen over Baltimore Bucko and the Group 1-placed #8 Redicean (5-1) in the exacta. The latter finished fourth in the Smithwick, but is eligible to improve in his second run of the season for hot trainer Leslie Young.

$20 to win on #6 The Mean Queen
$5 Exacta: 6 with 3,8 ($10)
Total: $30

Good luck!