How to bet the Lecomte Stakes

Where should we begin to narrow down the contenders for Saturday’s $200,000 Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds? History can point us in the right direction.

At first glance this 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race appears almost impossible to decipher. Fourteen lightly-raced 3-year-olds have been entered and many of them are stepping into stakes company for the first time.

But review the recent history of the Lecomte, and you’ll discover a couple trends that point you toward the most likely win contenders. Twelve of the last 15 Lecomte winners previously contested a stakes race, so for win purposes, we can lean against the inexperienced maiden and allowance runners who will step up in class Saturday.

We can also play against horses stretching out in distance for the first time. Thirteen of the last 15 Lecomte winners previously competed at least once running a mile or farther, which suggests sprinters unproven over a route of ground are poor plays.

One runner who needn’t worry about either trend is #4 Scabbard, a deserving favorite for trainer Eddie Kenneally. As a juvenile Scabbard held his own against tough company on major racing circuits, where he placed second in both the Saratoga Special (G2) and Iroquois Stakes (G3). He also contested the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita, where he encountered a deep and tiring track detrimental to late runners. Despite this obstacle Scabbard ran an even race from the back half of the pack to finish fourth.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Scabbard is a standout in the Lecomte. He posted a field-topping 96 in the Iroquois, even though he lost a ton of ground in traffic on the far turn. The Lecomte is a much easier field on paper than the Juvenile, so merely maintaining his fine 2-year-old form should be enough to land Scabbard in the winner’s circle.

The size of the Lecomte field should ensure Scabbard starts at a decent price in the wagering, so a hefty win bet will be our primary wager. We’ll also play him on top in the trifecta. Underneath we’ll use Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) runner-up #1 Finnick the Fierce, impressive Churchill Downs maiden winners #9 Silver State and #12 Shashashakemeup, Breeders’ Futurity (G1) third-place finisher #10 Enforceable, and runaway Fair Grounds debut winner #13 Sycamore Run.

$20 to win on #4 Scabbard 50-cent trifecta: 4 with 1,9,10,12,13 with 1,9,10,12,13 ($10)

Good luck!