How to bet the Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park

Sometimes handicappers latch on to a horse they believe has the talent to be a star and  pursue that notion for a few too many races. They'll bet on the possibility of untapped potential, even when it’s clear they’ve overrated the horse in question.

It’s possible I’ve fallen into this age-old trap with #2 Point of Honor, one of six fillies and mares entered in Saturday’s 1 1/6-mile Ogden Phipps (G1) at Belmont Park. A daughter of Curlin, out of a Bernardini mare, Point of Honor is bred to improve with maturity, so I’ve backed her in three Grade 1 races since her triumph in the 2019 Black-Eyed Susan (G2). Point of Honor cracked the trifecta in all three but failed to secure a signature victory.

Maybe Point of Honor isn’t quite up to winning at the Grade 1 level, but I’ll give her one more try in the Ogden Phipps.

She wasn’t disgraced by any means in the 1 1/16-mile Apple Blossom H. (G1) at Oaklawn Park two months ago. After she broke slowly and got squeezed between rivals, Point of Honor trailed by 23 1/4 lengths early, then rallied strongly on the far outside to finish third, beaten just 2 1/4 lengths by Grade 1 winners Ce Ce and Ollie’s Candy.

The Apple Blossom featured 14 horses, so the smaller field in the Ogden Phipps should help Point of Honor work out a clean trip and stay closer to the early pace. She'll also reunite with regular rider Javier Castellano.

There should be enough pace to set up Point of Honor’s late rally, since Apple Blossom runner-up #5 Ollie’s Candy figures to duel early with #4 Blamed and possibly #3 She’s a Julie. The one-turn setup Ogden Phipps could be beneficial, as well, considering late runners who can’t quite seal the deal in two-turn routes occasionally thrive around one turn.

So there you have it. I still believe Point of Honor has the talent to win a Grade 1 race, and I’ve convinced myself to give her one more try in the Ogden Phipps. I won’t hedge my bets to cover for the possibility of a runner-up effort. I’ll bet Point of Honor to win and key her on top of Ollie’s Candy, #1 Pink Sands, and #6 Golden Award in the exotics. If Point of Honor finally wins, I want to enjoy a big payday.

$20 to win on #2 Point of Honor
$3 exacta: 2 with 1,5,6 ($9)
$1 trifecta: 2 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6 ($6)
Total: $35

Good luck!