How to bet the Pick 5 on Ellis Park Derby Day

Street Band training at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Photography)

Sunday’s Pick 5 at Ellis Park isn’t quite an all-stakes sequence, but with a quartet of competitive stakes, plus a deep allowance race on the agenda, who’s counting?

A total of 67 horses (including also-eligibles) have been entered across the sequence. With so many potential outcomes, a hefty payoff could be in the offing, so let’s play the Pick 5 on a $60 budget and hope to cash a rewarding score.

Race 6: Debutante S. (4:10 p.m. ET)

Trainer Kenny McPeek has been on fire at Ellis Park, where he is 4-for-8 overall and 3-for-4 with juveniles, so his 2-year-old filly #4 Crazy Beautiful warrants respect in the Debutante.

She’ll cut back to 7 furlongs and transition to dirt, but the daughter of Liam’s Map was tons the best in a 1-mile turf maiden race at Ellis Park last month, when she sprinted home in :23 2/5 to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

Crazy Beautiful will be tough to beat if she handles dirt, but in case she doesn’t, we’ll back her up with #9 Hipnotizada, #10 Fabricate, and #11 Lacey Boss.

Race 7: Allowance (4:40 p.m. ET)

You can make a case for pretty much anyone in this 1 1/16-mile allowance race, so rather than hit the “ALL” button and dramatically increase the cost of our tickets, let’s take a stand with #3 On Base.

A lightly raced son of Empire Maker out of the Irish-bred Shamardal mare Burren Trail, On Base has been competing against tougher company on the Florida and New York circuits. He won a Tampa Bay Downs maiden race over next-out winner Sunsation, then returned from a four-month layoff to finish fifth in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Belmont Park.

With just three starts under his belt, On Base still has upside and has transitioned to the barn of Chris Hartman, who has gone 2-for-9 (29%) at Ellis Park.

At 6-1, he’ll add value to the sequence if we can bring him home on top as a single.

Race 8: Audubon Oaks (5:10 p.m. ET)

#2 Hello Beautiful has won her last four starts on dirt, including two stakes, by a combined margin of 29 1/4 lengths. A pure frontrunner, with Brisnet Speed ratings of 99 and 96 under her belt, Hello Beautiful has never run outside of Maryland, but will pick up hot jockey Julien Leparoux for her Kentucky debut and might prove impossible to catch.

In the event Hello Beautiful falters in her first run away from home, Beaumont (G3) runner-up #4 Sconsin, Acorn (G1) alumnus #5 Casual, Forward Gal (G3) runner-up #6 Street of Dreams, Iowa Oaks (G3) third-place finisher #7 Ocean Breeze, and two-time winner #10 Mundaye Call all offer varying levels of appeal.

Race 9: Groupie Doll S. (5:40 p.m. ET)

After she competed in 10 consecutive graded stakes — with wins in the Cotillion (G1), Indiana Oaks (G3), and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) — #12 Street Band figures to enjoy the drop in class for the Groupie Doll.

Cutting back to a mile should sharpen Street Band’s finishing kick for hot trainer Larry Jones, who has gone 2-for-3 at Ellis this meet.

#8 New Roo, an allowance winner by a dozen lengths over this track and distance July 24, and #10 Divine Queen, runner-up in the 2019 Groupie Doll, offer longshot appeal for smaller tickets.

Race 10: Ellis Park Derby (6:10 p.m. ET)

Blue Grass (G2) winner #4 Art Collector is 3-for-3 this season, with Brisnet Speed ratings of 103 and 104 under his belt. A versatile runner capable of winning from anywhere in the pack, Art Collector is the fastest horse on paper and shouldn’t lose if he receives a clean trip.

We’ll single this exciting son of Bernardini to close out our tickets.