How To Bet the Prince of Wales 2017 at Fort Erie

The second jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown is Tuesday, July 25, at Fort Erie Racetrack, and I have a strong opinion that the favorite is worth a win bet at 6-to-5 or better.

I have made a fair odds line for the 7-horse field and based on the morning line, anticipate #5 Tiz A Slam and #1 Spirit of Caldedon to offer the most value. I also anticipate a bum line on #2 Aurora Way, who was 5.35-to-1 against 12 others in the Queen's Plate but is expected to be 6-to-1 here against half the field. Yeah, ninth beaten 11 isn't the best way to come into a classic, but what did people expect in his second career start stepping up from the maiden ranks and stretching out to 1 1/4 miles? There's obviously talent there, but this one can beat me at that morning price or below at 1 3/16 miles on the dirt in his third career start.

#4 State of Honor is dangerous as lone speed, but that's no gimme at Fort Erie. Horses who rank on top in both Quirin Speed Points and Prime Power are 18-for-62 in non-maiden dirt routes on tracks rated as fast with a -40% ROI. I.e., they're crazy overbet. When limiting the query to horses with at least a 3-point advantage in Quirin Speed Points, the numbers get a little better with 5 wins from 28 starts and a +9% ROI. However, of the 23 losers only 7 others finished in the money for a 57% out of the money percentage. All or nothing seems to be the choices for State of Honor backers at a short price (if he were a bomb as lone speed I'd be more inclined to use him more liberally in all places).

So that's who I don't like of the horses I expect to take money. I do like #5 Tiz A Slam. He was much the best of Queen's Plate rest behind winner Holy Helena. It wasn't a bad trip, jockey Eurico Da Silva waited for room and when he got it Tiz A Slam responded. No one was catching the winner, and no one else was a match for Tiz A Slam's run late. He'll be closer to the pace this time and should have less traffic in the shorter field. 

#1 Spirit of Caledon outran his odds at 74.5-to-1, and I actually liked him a little bit at the huge price last out. I'm concerned about sire Mike Fox's 0-for-8 record with dirt starters, but that's obviously from very limited opportunities. He's a playable key underneath the logicals, and on a back up to spice up the multis.

But I'll leave no doubt that I'm leaning mostly on #5 Tiz A Slam on the win end.

Prince of Wales Stakes Crib Notes:

Full-card ABC grid: