How to bet the Purple Martin Stakes

The COVID-19 outbreak has caused many Thoroughbred tracks across North America to suspend live racing, so Saturday’s $100,000 Purple Martin S. at Oaklawn Park is the only stakes race scheduled to be run anywhere in the United States this weekend.

On the bright side, the 6-furlong sprint is shaping up to be a competitive race. Ten talented 3-year-old fillies have been entered, including five stakes winners, so the battle for supremacy figures to be fierce.

The 5-2 morning line favorite is #8 Frank’s Rockette, and I’m not inclined to oppose her. Trained by Bill Mott, the daughter of Into Mischief was among the best juvenile fillies of 2019. She placed second in the Adirondack (G2), Spinaway (G1), and Frizette (G1) during a productive but slightly frustrating campaign.

After she skipped the Breeders’ Cup and took some time off, Frank’s Rockette returned to action with a powerful victory in the 6-furlong Any Limit S. at Gulfstream Park. Favored at even-money, the speedy daughter of Into Mischief led all the way to crush her rivals by seven lengths and earned a 101 Brisnet Speed rating.

Frank’s Rockette has been targeting the Purple Martin for weeks and drew well in post 8, which affords hot jockey Martin Garcia plenty of options to work out a clean trip. She would be a clear standout if not for the formidable presence of #1 Kimari.

A two-time stakes winner trained by Wesley Ward, Kimari has shown plenty of talent and potential on grass. She nearly won the Queen Mary (G2) at Royal Ascot in England, where she went down by just a head against Raffle Prize, who returned to win the Duchess of Cambridge (G2) and place in the Prix Morny (G1) and Cheveley Park (G1).

Back in the U.S., Kimari rattled off victories in the Bolton Landing S. and Indian Summer S. (the latter against colts), before she finished a solid fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2). She was absolutely flying at the finish and gained 8 1/2 lengths in the final furlong, and might have won with a sharper start.

Kimari will switch to dirt for the Purple Martin, but she won her debut over the Keeneland main track by 15 lengths (for a 104 Brisnet Speed rating), so the switch shouldn’t be an issue. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has the mount, and Kimari figures to give Frank’s Rockette a stiff challenge.

Splitting these two talented fillies is the tough part, but I’ll give a slight edge to Frank’s Rockette. Kimari has a tendency to break slowly and has been rerouted to this spot because of the cancellation of racing at Keeneland, which suggests Frank’s Rockette might be a better fit for this competitive race.

We’ll play a straight exacta and call it a day.

$20 exacta: 8 with 1

Good luck!