How to bet the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes

Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races aren’t typically held on Wednesdays, but there will be an exception this week, when Kempton Park in England hosts the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition S.

The 1-mile race serves as the penultimate leg of the European Road to the Kentucky Derby and offers 20 qualification points to the winner. The race has attracted a field of five, but stay tuned—there could be an opportunity to make a nice score.

The race is enticing from a betting perspective because #5 New World Tapestry figures to attract a ton of support without necessarily being the best horse.

His credentials are compelling enough. He is a beautifully bred son of War Front, out of Tapestry, the winner of the 1 1/2-mile Yorkshire Oaks (G1) in 2014. He races for the powerful team of trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore, and he is dropping in class, out of a Group 1 race.

But that Group 1 race was the Futurity Trophy (G1) held over the synthetic track at Newcastle. New World Tapestry ran well in his first three starts on turf, but he completely misfired when he switched to synthetic for the Futurity Trophy, where he finished eighth, beaten 14 lengths. Wednesday’s race will likewise be contested over a synthetic track, which raises questions about New World Tapestry’s ability to handle the surface.

It’s also worth noting New World Tapestry has a lot of form to find in terms of Racing Post ratings, with an 87 his best rating to date.

Both #2 Berlin Tango and #3 Chares have earned significantly higher ratings against good company on turf. Chares went undefeated in three starts last season, and most notably won the 1-mile Criterium de Lyon in France with a 100 Racing Post rating. Berlin Tango put up a 101 when he finished third in the 7-furlong Flying Scotsman S. at Doncaster.

Andrew Balding, the trainer of Berlin Tango, wins at a 19% rate with 3-year-olds racing on all-weather tracks, and saddled Bye Bye Hong Kong to win the Cardinal Conditions S. on last year’s European Road to the Kentucky Derby. Jockey Oisin Murphy strikes at an even stronger 21% rate when guiding sophomores on synthetic, so by almost every metric, Berlin Tango looms as the horse to beat.

#1 Ayr Harbour, who has won his last two starts on synthetic tracks, can challenge for the minor awards, while the maiden #4 Naval Commander appears to be in deep against this level of competition.

Let’s key Berlin Tango on top in a trifecta.

$5 trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with 1,3,5 ($20)

Good luck!