How to bet the Santa Anita Derby

When seven of California’s fleetest 3-year-olds head to the Santa Anita starting gate for a postponed edition of the Santa Anita Derby (G1), most will expect #7 Authentic to keep his unbeaten record intact and record a dominant victory.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Authentic is the only graded stakes winner in the Santa Anita Derby field, so the 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race is his to lose.

He raced very greenly in the Jan. 4 Sham (G3), but he was tons the best and crushed future El Camino Real Derby winner #5 Azul Coast by 7 3/4 lengths. Authentic subsequently raced more professionally in the March 7 San Felipe (G2), where he led all the way to beat #6 Honor A. P. by 2 1/4 lengths.

But as a son of Into Mischief, out of a Mr. Greeley mare, there’s a chance 1 1/8 miles could be stretching the limits of his stamina. Authentic could also face pace pressure from #3 Shooters Shoot, who has flashed excellent speed to win maiden and allowance races against good company.

It’s also possible San Felipe runner-up Honor A. P. has a bit more upside than the favorite. A beautifully bred son of champion Honor Code, out of the Grade 1-winning mare Hollywood Story, Honor A. P. dominated a 1-mile maiden race at Santa Anita in the fall, when he won by 5 1/4 lengths with a 97 Brisnet Speed rating (equal to Authentic’s best).

Honor A. P. subsequently missed a little training time with a hoof issue and entered the San Felipe off a five-month layoff, but despite these obstacles, he ran a gutsy race against Authentic and refused to let the favorite draw away down the lane. 

Honor A. P. has turned in a steady string of strong workouts since, including a bullet 5 furlongs in :59 1/5 May 22, and should be ready to deliver an improved effort in the Santa Anita Derby.

A fitter, faster Honor A. P. can turn the tables on Authentic.

Let’s bet Honor A. P. on top of Authentic in the exacta and trifecta. We'll add #2 Rushie, #3 Shooters Shoot, and #4 Anneau d’Or for third place.

$15 exacta: 6 with 7
$5 trifecta: 6 with 7 with 2,3,4 ($15)
Total: $30

Good luck!