How to bet the Saratoga Special and Sorrento

August 4th, 2020

The 2-year-old racing scene will heat up in a big way Friday, with the running of the Saratoga Special (G2) at Saratoga and the Sorrento (G2) at Del Mar.

These 6-furlong sprints serve as major steppingstones toward end-of-summer Grade 1 prizes, like the Hopeful (G1) and Del Mar Debutante (G1), so both races have drawn competitive fields.

Want to play along? Here are a couple of spot plays to get you started.

Saratoga, Race 9: Saratoga Special (G2, 5:46 p.m. ET)

A deep field has turned out to contest the Saratoga Special, so bettors will have no shortage of talented 2-year-olds to choose from.

#6 Cazadero dominated his first two starts at Churchill Downs by a minimum of 4 3/4 lengths, including an easy win in the Bashford Manor (G3).

#9 Therideofalifetime crushed a 6-furlong maiden race at Keeneland by 8 1/4 lengths and earned a field-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating.

#7 Momos cruised to victory at Saratoga last month for hot trainer Christophe Clement, #10 Jackie’s Warrior beat Therideofalifetime in their mutual debut at Churchill Downs, and #12 Roderick defeated next-out winner Zippy Baby by 8 1/4 lengths in a Belmont Park race.

We could debate their respective merits all day long, or we could play outside the box with #1 Papetu, who has gone 2-for-2 at Gulfstream Park and posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 92.

Trained by Antonio Sano, who won the 2016 Saratoga Special with Florida shipper Gunnevera, Papetu fits well on paper and showed the ability to rate just off the pace when he won a 5 1/2-furlong allowance sprint July 5, which gives jockey John Velazquez options to work out a clean trip in Friday’s speed-laden field.

Papetu breezed a bullet half-mile in :47 3/5 July 25 at Gulfstream Park West, so all signs suggest he is entering the Saratoga Special ready to run a big race.

He is likely to be overlooked in the wagering, so let’s bet him to win and key him in the exacta, with Cazadero and Therideofalifetime.

$8 to win on #1 Papetu
$1 exacta: 1 with 6,9 ($2)
$5 exacta: 6,9 with 1 ($10)
Total: $20

Del Mar, Race 8: Sorrento (G2, 8:30 p.m. ET)

This 6-furlong sprint doesn’t look like the strongest race.

The par Brisnet Speed rating for this class level and distance is 90, and none of the half-dozen experienced fillies in Sorrento field have reached this plateau. #2 September Secret came closest, when she put up an 87 in a 7 3/4-length victory, but her success came in a $50,000 maiden claiming race for California-breds, and it followed a sound defeat against state-bred maiden special weight company.

So why not take a shot with the first-time starter #1 Get On the Bus?

Betting on an unraced horse to win a graded stakes might seem unorthodox, but trainer Doug O’Neill has pulled off this move before, when he saddled 2-year-old Know More to win the 2012 Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar in his debut.

A daughter of champion juvenile Uncle Mo, Get On the Bus has turned in a lengthy series of sharp workouts in preparation for the Sorrento and put in 5 furlongs from the Del Mar starting gate in 1:00.40 Sunday.

If this $340,000 auction purchase runs to her works, she can skip the formality of a maiden race and become a graded stakes winner on debut.

$20 to win on #1 Get On the Bus
$10 exacta: 1 with 2
$5 trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with 2,4 ($10)
Total: $40

Good luck!

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