How to bet With, and Against, Alva Starr in the Raven Run Stakes

A total of nine sophomore fillies will run seven panels on the Keeneland dirt in Saturday’s $350,000 Raven Run S. (G2). The morning-line choice is the fleet #7 Alva Starr (2-1), who was a superb winner of the Prioress S. (G2) at Saratoga on Sept. 2. The Brett Brinkman pupil has been first or second in each of her five lifetime tries to date and has improved her Brisnet Speed figure in each one of her career appearances. 

• Alva Starr – With
• $4 trifecta: key 7 with 2,4,6 ($24)
• $1 superfecta: 7 with 4,6 with 2,4,6 with all ($24)

Alva Starr – Against

• $2 trifecta: 4,6 with 2,4,6,7 with 2,4,6,7 ($24)
• $.50-cent superfecta: 6 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 with all ($18) 

Alva Starr hasn’t been headed in a pair of dominant stakes tallies in succession, and the daughter of Lord Nelson continues to train like a filly with a forward move in her once again, too. She has won from off of the pace in the past, and the Kentucky-bred also received a good post draw well off of the rail with Tyler Gaffalione taking the reins. The bay will be formidable with her best showing.

The Juddmonte color bearer #6 Dazzling Blue (9-2) romped in her first trio of assignments prior to falling short in a pair of subsequent stakes affairs, although she did place in each of her black-type assignments. Trained by Brad Cox, the $500,000 Into Mischief filly was dusted by the favorite at 3-5 odds most recently at Saratoga but will improve in this heat for sure. The Kentucky-bred bay possesses both early speed and a turn of foot, and the recent five-furlong bullet that she posted at Ellis Park tells me that she will be on point on Saturday. Florent Geroux will be in the stirrups. 

Recent Charles Town Oaks (G3) victress #4 Vahva (3-1) has run three of the best races of her career at seven-eighths and wouldn’t be a surprise in this spot with John Velazquez taking the reins. The Gun Runner three-year-old was a smart runner-up in the allowance ranks on the course in April and comes into Saturday with a nice string of morning moves at this venue, as well. The talented stalker could sit a very good trip from just off of the swift early tempo.

I’m a bit intrigued with #2 Simply Stated (10-1) at a nice price. The Todd Beattie trainee comes in with a quartet of victories in succession and is a proven commodity on both dirt and synthetic. The versatile daughter of Warrior’s Reward is facing a pretty big class hike against this crew, but her morning moves have been swift as of late, and I expect her to be well-placed turning for home, too. Luis Saez will guide the long shot.