How to bet with, and against, Wet Paint in the Kentucky Oaks

An overflow field of 17 sophomore fillies will go postward in the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs on Friday. The 1 1/8-mile affair is led by Godolphin homebred #7 Wet Paint (5-2), the morning-line choice for conditioner Brad Cox. By Blame, the talented three-year-old is three-for-three this campaign with eye-catching victories in the Martha Washington S., Honeybee S. (G3), and Fantasy S. (G3), displaying her potent late run to come from well back on each occasion to win in going-away fashion.

The Kentucky-bred bay appears to have taken to the local surface with a trio of nice morning moves beneath the Twin Spires in advance of her toughest test to date, and the move to nine furlongs will only aid the peaking miss who has never been upended on the dirt. Flavien Prat, who has been in the silks for each of her three assignments in 2023, will once again take the reins aboard the classy lass. Wet Paint will be well back in the early stages prior to being asked for her best in the stretch.

#6 Botanical (4-1), also from the Cox shedrow, has dominated in four straight races dating back to November and looms large if she takes to the dirt. The three-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has improved her Brisnet Speed figure in each career run to date and has looked the part in her quartet of morning moves on the course as of late, too. Kentucky-bred filly has good early zip, but she has proven in the past to be capable of rallying from off of the tempo, and she will thrive with more ground to work with, as well. Chris Landeros will be in the stirrups and will likely have the menacing figure in the top three, potentially on the front end, going into the first turn.

The Norm Casse-trained #4 Southlawn (8-1) lacks the body of work that some of her main foes possess, but the up-and-coming filly has been super impressive while posting a pair of dominant wins at Fair Grounds this season. By Pioneerof the Nile, the vastly improved bay sure looked the part in the recent Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in dusting a solid field and has trained forwardly in the interim. The $290,000 yearling purchase has tactical speed to secure a good slot early on, and she will be a force at a fair price with continued ascension under the guidance of Reylu Gutierrez.

The Pletcher-trained Gazelle S. (G3) runner-up #3 Gambling Girl (15-1), Champion #5 Wonder Wheel (12-1), and Dubai import #1 Mimi Kakushi (20-1), are others that I will dabble with in the vertical exotics.

Wet Paint – With

• $1 superfecta: 7 with 4,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with all ($88)

Wet Paint – Against

• $2 trifecta: 4,6 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 ($80)

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