How to play the Kentucky Derby Sires Future Wager

Trying to predict the winner of a race more than five months out is enough of a task. But trying to predict the sire of the winner…arguably an even tougher task.

The Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager is perhaps the toughest task among the future wager puzzles. With the Future Wager for runners, you get four more goes at it to cover your bets if your selected runner falls by the wayside early, plus you can bet on the day itself.

However, for the Sire Future Wager, this is it. None of the other future wagers features a sire option, and it’s not available on the day of the race, so covering bets through other sires is not an option. Given that there are no refunds if a listed sire has no runners, it’s a serious challenge.

To date there have been six Sire Future Wagers. The list of winners is as follows:

Year     Winner                        Price                Winning Sire               Price

2016    Nyquist                        $21.80             Uncle Mo                    $20.20

2017    Always Dreaming *    $4.40               Bodemeister               $63.60

2018    Justify *                       $4.40               Scat Daddy                  $54.80

2019    Country House *          $4.60               Lookin at Lucky *         $11.40

2020    Authentic                    $103.60           Into Mischief               $36.20

2021    Medina Spirit *           $4.60               Protonico *                  $12.00

 

*Indicates the winner was the “All Others” option.

So though four of the six winners of the race were covered by the “all others” option in Pool 1 of the Future Wager, which happens at the same time as the Sire Future Wager, only two of the Sire Future Wager payouts were on the favored “all others” option: only Country House’s sire Lookin at Lucky and Medina Spirit’s sire Protonico were not individual options.

The two odd years out were 2017, when Always Dreaming was not a named option but his sire Bodemeister was, and 2018, when the unraced Justify was not an individual option, unlike his sire Scat Daddy.

For the 2022 Derby there is the extra complication of the Bob Baffert situation. As his runners are banned from Churchill Downs Inc. tracks for two years, his horses have not accumulated any points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and will need to move to another stable to earn a start.

This particularly impacts Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Corniche. He is not a named runner in Pool 1 of the Future Wager, but his sire #15 Quality Road is an option in the Sire Future Wager – and was the morning line favorite among individual sires at 8-1. This reflected not only the possibility of Corniche starting, but also the fact Quality Road is a top-notch sire. Early betting had him at 14-1.

Early betting had #24 All Other Sires favored at about 7-2 (in from the 6-1 ML price). As far as individual sires went, the early money was mainly for first-crop sire sensation #6 Gun Runner (backed from 15-1 ML to 6-1), champion overall sire #7 Into Mischief (backed from 20-1 ML to 8-1), and Jack Christopher’s sire #10 Munnings (steady at 12-1).

When betting on this, I would always include “All Other Sires.” There are always some horses that haven’t shown up much by late November of their two-year-old careers that become Derby contenders, and some will either be by low-profile stallions or sires that aren’t one of the 23 named sires.

Among the leading sires not featured among the options are Connect (sire of Breeders’ Futurity [G1] winner Rattle N Roll), Constitution, Classic Empire, Gormley, Ghostzapper, Paynter, Hard Spun, and Liam’s Map. There’s enough depth in the “all others” to put the largest investment in this option.

Corniche is too good a prospect to leave Quality Road out, especially as he may have some other candidates. I might take a chance on leaving out Munnings given the interruption to Jack Christopher’s training, though it’s understandable one might not want to.

Gun Runner has made such an impression with his first crop that he’s hard to leave out. If there was a Future Sire Wager for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), he’d be a must-include given how dominant Echo Zulu was among the juvenile fillies. However, even though his progeny might well improve at three, the current price of 6-1 seems a little short, so I’m prepared to take a chance and maybe back one of his individual runners in Pool 1 instead.

The one I would not leave out is Into Mischief. Not only is he the leading 2021 sire in waiting, his record in the Derby includes not only 2020 winner Authentic but also Mandaloun, second across the wire in 2021. He is second on the two-year-old sires list for 2021 and had 28 winners, so there’s a lot of potential Derby horses there.

Among the longer-priced sire prospects, I’d have a look at #3 Curlin, #2 Candy Ride, #12 Nyquist, and #23 Union Rags. But regardless, it’s a tough task!

BEST PLAYS – KENTUCKY DERBY SIRE FUTURE WAGER

• $20 win #24 All Other Sires
• $6 win #15 Quality Road
• $6 win #7 Into Mischief
• $2 win #2 Candy Ride
• $2 win #3 Curlin
• $2 win #12 Nyquist
• $2 win #23 Union Rags

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Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool 1 (Grade I)

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