2025 Dubai World Cup: Top selections and price plays

The old adage “You can’t pick ‘em all” keeps reverberating through the brain when the time comes to make selections for big race days. Saturday’s Dubai World Cup (G1) program is a case in point.

Even in races with such lopsided favorites as Forever Young and Romantic Warrior, there’s no shortage of quality rivals who can outperform market expectations. That’s even truer for the races that appear more evenly matched on paper.

I’ll highlight horses of greatest interest in the eight Thoroughbred stakes, including those eligible to factor at a decent price. Note that the World Pool opens in the third race, the Godolphin Mile (G2), and runs through the World Cup itself. 

Dubai Gold Cup (G2): Race 2, 9:10 a.m. ET

At this writing, there’s not much clarity in the overseas betting, with a handful of contenders all vying for favoritism in the 4-1 to 6-1 range. That reflects an open-looking contest, although those with double-digit odds have a few too many questions for comfort.

#2 Continuous (7-2) will try to give Aidan O’Brien his third consecutive victory in this race. Europe’s highest-rated three-year-old of 2023 is difficult to trust since his form fell off a cliff last fall, but his comeback third in the Red Sea Turf H. (G3) on Saudi Cup Day sends a positive signal. Ballydoyle’s lone runner on the World Cup card, the son of Heart’s Cry, might find his niche in the staying division. 

#8 Trawlerman (5-1) looms as a win threat if he can fire off the bench. The John and Thady Gosden veteran brings top-tier form after crossing swords with the great Kyprios, placing a valiant second in Royal Ascot’s Gold Cup (G1) and third in the British Champions Long Distance Cup (G2). Trawlerman was also a hard-trying third in this race a year ago – off a similar layoff – from post 16. Drawn vastly better in post 3 this time, he’ll benefit from having William Buick aboard too. 

#3 Double Major (7-1), France’s top three-year-old stayer of 2023, could be the price play in his first foreign venture for Christophe Ferland. The Wertheimer et Frere homebred enjoyed a productive 2024, and he has the benefit of a useful prep on the Chantilly Polytrack. #1 Al Nayyir (6-1), runner-up in last year’s Dubai Gold Cup, stands to move forward from his Red Sea tightener, where he was encumbered with 137 pounds.

Godolphin Mile (G2): Race 3, 9:45 a.m. ET

#8 Mufasa (5-1) was a crushing disappointment in the two-turn Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), but the Chilean import was a different proposition cutting back in the Mr. Prospector (G3), where he upended the tough-trip White Abarrio. The one-turn configuration of Meydan’s metric mile should suit Mufasa well. The variable is that he’s left Ignacio Correas and joined Bhupat Seemar, so the question mark is if he can peak in his debut for a new barn. 

#11 Peptide Nile (9-1) warrants more respect than his odds imply for his level of form on the Japanese dirt. The surprise winner of the 2024 February (G1), he has backed it up with a series of solid efforts in defeat. Peptide Nile notably pressed champion Lemon Pop in last fall’s Mile Championship Nambu Hai before settling for second, and he exits a fourth in his February title defense. 

#13 Raging Torrent (9-2) is eminently logical as the Malibu (G1) winner representing Doug O’Neill, who’s won this race twice with horses of lesser cachet. This race has a tendency not to play by logic. If they go too fast early, it could play into the hands of #15 Steal Sunshine (14-1) with the eye-catching booking of Christophe Lemaire. #9 No Lunch (6-1) has been a revelation on the French Polytrack over the winter, most recently disposing of Prix du Moulin (G1) hero Tribalist, and he’d be a danger if transferring his game to dirt. Sire Dubawi gives him a fighting chance to do so. 

Al Quoz Sprint (G1): Race 4, 10:20 a.m. ET

The favorites’ odds are a bit too short in their individual circumstances, making this turf dash look very much like the spot to take a stab.

The Graham Motion-trained #4 Isivunguvungu (21-1) smacks of a big overlay for a former South African champion who was beaten only a couple of lengths (with late trouble) in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1). Maybe I’m incorrigibly bullish on him, but he picks up Christophe Soumillon. 

#1 Audience (7-1) is officially the highest-rated horse in this race by some way, although for his exploits over seven furlongs and a mile. Still, the Gosdens’ veteran has the right profile to adapt, given his speed, and he has a penchant for going very well fresh. 

Hong Kong shipper #3 Howdeepisyourlove (3-1) has obvious claims after repeatedly placing to sprint sensation Ka Ying Rising. The scruple is that he’ll offer little to no value with the Hong Kong fans supporting him in the World Pool, and he finishes second or third twice as often as he wins. 

#9 Believing (5-2) is bound to earn her Group 1 laurel sooner or later for George Boughey. The Coolmore brain trust believes the same, or else they wouldn’t have kept her in training after buying her for nearly $4 million at Tattersalls last December. But can the five-year-old mare strike in her first start of the year? Being stuck on the far side in post 1 might not be the optimal tactical spot either. Sophomore #11 West Acre (4-1) has beaten elders during the Carnival, but the waters are a lot deeper, over an extra furlong, on Saturday. 

UAE Derby (G2): Race 5, 11 a.m. ET

#6 Heart of Honor (4-1) was the beaten favorite in the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) and Al Bastakiya, but I wouldn’t abandon ship. A rallying second from too far back in both classics, he’s liable to be sharper from the gate with the addition of blinkers. 

The Jamie Osborne pupil should get a genuine pace set-up courtesy of #4 Flood Zone (9-5) and #8 Shin Forever (3-1), who both have stamina questions to answer. If they play their tactical cards right, Flood Zone and Shin Forever can carry their speed a long way. I’m not sure either will last the about 1 3/16-mile trip strongly enough to win, though.

#1 Admire Daytona (12-1) is the intriguing price play. The son of Drefong ran a better-than-appears fourth to Japan Road conqueror Luxor Cafe in the Hyacinth S., where he was done no favors by lagging off a steady tempo. He figures to take up a better early position with Lemaire aboard here. Note that in a Tokyo maiden last November, he was just outdueled by Luxor Cafe in juvenile record time.

Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1): Race 6, 11:40 a.m. ET

Going into the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2), I was hesitant, even skeptical, about whether the deep Saudi track would really suit #9 Straight No Chaser (9-5) as a pace factor. I thought that Meydan would play to his strengths more. After he glided home to outclass the opposition in Riyadh, is there a compelling reason for me to quibble about him again, and reverse my initial pro-Meydan view? 

This field has more depth, including defending champion #11 Tuz (2-1), although I wonder if he can extend his winning streak to six. The eight-year-old veteran has dominated the local division since early December. Even though the Seemar yard has mastered the craft of keeping older sprinters going, does Tuz have one more big effort left in him before his vacation?

Wesley Ward’s #6 Nakatomi (9-1) was an unlucky third behind Tuz here a year ago, and a smoother passage from off a torrid pace can help him go closer. A belated sixth to Straight No Chaser in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) in his latest, he has a five-length gap to bridge with the top U.S. contender. 

A similar point applies to #7 Remake (12-1), a hampered fourth in the 2024 Shaheen. The Japanese closer has been in a downward spiral of late, but the addition of blinkers and Frankie Dettori might energize him. For an exotics bomb, take a look at #3 Eastern World (32-1), a half-brother to Thunder Snow who finished fifth in his only prior try in this race in 2022. He’s been improving through every start this Carnival and got up for third (just missing second) in the last prep.

Dubai Turf (G1): Race 7, 12:15 p.m. ET

The world’s richest racehorse, #8 Romantic Warrior (3-5), is the prohibitive favorite in his return to turf following his excellent placing to Forever Young in the Saudi Cup (G1). The Hong Kong superstar arguably had a harder race than Forever Young did, on an unfamiliar surface, although he continues to look magnificent in training. 

The best alternative is two-time Japanese champion filly #11 Liberty Island (8-1), who closed smartly as the runner-up in Romantic Warrior’s Hong Kong Cup (G1) three-peat. Also second to world phenom Equinox in the 2023 Japan Cup (G1), Liberty Island was a rallying third to Rebel’s Romance in last year’s Dubai Sheema Classic (G1). The cutback to about nine furlongs should work, especially in her seasonal reappearance. The spacing from her last race is very similar to the kickoff of her sophomore campaign, when she captured the Oka Sho (G1), the first jewel on the way to her Fillies’ Triple Crown sweep. 

#2 Ghostwriter (17-1) is the most appealing of the double-digit options, considering his European form in 2024. The Clive Cox pupil competed exclusively in Group 1 company, including a pair of classics, and never ran a bad race in defeat. Significantly, he was third to City of Troy and Calandagan in the course-record Juddmonte International (G1), the top-rated race in the world last year. As an Invincible Spirit colt from the family of Zafonic, Ghostwriter might well appreciate turning back in trip.

Godolphin’s #7 Nations Pride (9-1) and Japan’s #9 Soul Rush (10-1) have the class to make their presence felt despite racing at a distance that’s not quite ideal. Nations Pride, a close third here in 2023, would prefer an extra furlong, while Soul Rush is probably best at a flat mile. My concern about defending champion #1 Facteur Cheval (14-1) is that no horse was able to win this race more than once until the three-peating Lord North, and the French raider has taken a different path this time with failed dirt experiments. 

Dubai Sheema Classic (G1): Race 8, 12:50 p.m. ET

#5 Calandagan (5-2), the aforementioned Juddmonte International runner-up, ran riot at Royal Ascot in his only previous try at this about 1 1/2-mile trip. Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard has been red-hot in France so far this season, and the only potential caveat is if the late Aga Khan’s homebred is left with too much to do down the Meydan homestretch.

#8 Shin Emperor (4-1) shouldn’t necessarily be a quarter the price of #2 Durezza (16-1), since they dead-heated for second in the Japan Cup. Both also brandish noteworthy European form from 2024, with Shin Emperor a not-cranked third in the Irish Champion (G1) and Durezza fifth in that ultra-deep Juddmonte. Both can employ tactical styles that have played well in this race. The advantage that Shin Emperor has over Durezza is upside: the four-year-old brother to Sottsass, and half-brother to Sistercharlie, enters off a front-running coup on the Saudi Cup undercard.

#4 Rebel’s Romance (5-2) parlayed a perfect tracking trip to victory here last year, but the Godolphin veteran won’t be unique in that regard this time. The seven-year-old is also trying to make history as the first two-time Sheema winner, and it’s tempting to see the baton being passed to the younger generation. 

Dubai World Cup (G1): Race 9, 1:30 p.m. ET

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi said that #1 Forever Young (4-5) has actually progressed from his Saudi Cup victory, and the stretch-out back to two turns should bring out the best in him. On paper, he appears extremely difficult to beat. 

Japanese compatriot #11 Wilson Tesoro (26-1) and Kenny McPeek’s #8 Rattle N Roll (26-1), the respective fourth and fifth from the Saudi Cup, have every right to appreciate the added ground as well. Wilson Tesoro, also fourth in last year’s World Cup, returns as an overall improved performer. Judging by his seconds to Lemon Pop and Forever Young in a pair of Group 1s at home last December, Wilson Tesoro has a case to complete the exacta at Meydan. If multi-millionaire Rattle N Roll had drawn into the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), instead of being marooned as an also-eligible, he might have finished well enough to raise his profile further. 

#4 Imperial Emperor (4-1) might end up being an underlay compared to Seemar stablemate #10 Walk of Stars (7-1), but the son of Dubawi and Zhukova (and close relative of Ghaiyyath) is on a relentlessly upward curve. #9 Ushba Tesoro (8-1), the 2023 World Cup star, can never be discounted, especially after his third in the Saudi Cup, but the sweltering heat could spoil his swan song. 

Good luck, and enjoy a fascinating day of racing in Dubai!