2025 Saudi Cup Day: Horses of interest

Saudi Cup Day features six lucrative Group stakes for Thoroughbreds (seven if you include the Arabian prize), three apiece on turf and dirt at King Abdulaziz Racecourse. The turf stakes cover the distance spectrum from sprinters to stayers, while the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) is the longest of the dirt contests at about 1 1/8 miles.

With a clash of formlines across continents, compounded by the angles of coming in race-fit versus off a layoff, and the perennial questions about which horses will act on the Riyadh dirt, there’s sure to be value lurking somewhere. 

Let’s take stock of the favorites and try to find the proverbial dark horses. 

Saudi Derby (G3): Race 3, 8:20 a.m. ET

Japan has won this race three times in five runnings, most recently with Forever Young (more on him below in the Saudi Cup). The filly #11 Myriad Love (5-2) sports a profile broadly similar to Forever Young, as the unbeaten winner of the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. But she wasn’t as utterly dominant, and her designs are on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) rather than the Derby. 

Myriad Love still has more appeal than the speedy U.S. favorite #4 Cyclone State (2-1), whose effectiveness around a one-turn mile at Aqueduct might be harder to replicate here. Note that his margins have been shrinking late, and this stretch could feel like an eternity. #6 Golden Vekoma (9-2) is logical as the improving winner of the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), but the caveat is that Dubai shippers have yet to crack a Saudi Derby exacta. 

Hideyuki Mori has won the Saudi Derby twice with longshots, and #9 Shin Forever (12-1) bears a resemblance to his 2021 upsetter Pink Kamehameha. Both raced exclusively on turf and went winless since their debut scores. Shin Forever has the bonus of being a Kentucky-bred by dirt star Complexity. 

Europe has placed a couple of times in this race, and Joseph O’Brien’s #2 Apples and Bananas (5-1) has the right attributes to adapt to dirt. His tactical speed and battling attitude carried him to victory in a listed race at Deauville along with a big sales race at the Curragh, and he had the class to finish third in the Criterium International (G1). Sire Wootton Bassett has a major local winner in Wootton’sun, a longshot in the Saudi Cup. 

Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2): Race 4, 9 a.m. ET

#10 Straight No Chaser (6-5) aims to emulate Elite Power as a Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) champion who makes a triumphant seasonal reappearance here. Yet Elite Power was arguably a more formidable figure. Straight No Chaser’s new dimension of stalking helps his chances, but the projected odds are unappealing in the circumstances. The inclination is to respect him while trying to beat him. 

Closers have prevailed in four of five editions, typified by defending champion #8 Remake (5-2). He comes off the worst race of his life in the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar, where he trailed Straight No Chaser. The venue change should help Remake, who was third to Elite Power here in 2023. But no one’s won this race twice; three previous Riyadh Dirt Sprint winners flopped in their title defenses. 

The temptation is to take a swing with another Japanese closer, the progressive four-year-old #2 Chikappa (12-1). By Forever Young’s sire Real Steel, he’s out of an Into Mischief mare who is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Zensational. Chikappa had never been out of the top two sprinting on dirt until his latest, a better-than-appears sixth in the Capella (G3) to #11 Gabby’s Sister (10-1). Racing farther behind early and forced to go wide down the Nakayama stretch, Chikappa still fired the fastest final 600 meters (about three furlongs) in :35.7 to lose by little more than a length in a blanket finish.

It’s not pure sentiment to view the Jimmy Jerkens-trained #1 Ancestral Land (20-1) as a possible sleeper. Tactically flexible and 4-for-4 on this dirt track, he keeps Joel Rosario who steered him from just off the pace in the local qualifier. 

Neom Turf Cup (G2): Race 6, 10:25 a.m. ET

After hitting the crossbar at the highest level, #6 Shin Emperor (8-5) looks well placed to snap a losing streak for Yoshito Yahagi. His placings in last year’s Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1) and Irish Champion (G1) were full of merit, and his near-miss in the Japan Cup (G1) was a strong pointer that his day is coming. 

Value could come in the shape of #9 Straight (20-1), who forced Rebel’s Romance to fend him off in record time in last fall’s Preis von Europa (G1). If the well-bred son of Zarak will never be accused of consistency, he’s capable of going close when on his game. His best efforts have come over further, but I’m not sure he’s been tried enough in this vicinity to be certain of his optimal trip. 

#7 Sovereign Spirit (25-1) has been sharp in Bahrain, placing to Isle of Jura last winter and most recently playing second fiddle to Phantom Flight. His race fitness could be his trump card, and he picks up Ryan Moore.

Defending champion #8 Spirit Dancer (6-1) doesn’t have the benefit of a prep as he did a year ago, but when the Richard Fahey veteran finds congenial conditions, he tends to run his race.  #1 Al Riffa (9-2) hasn’t been seen since his Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) debacle. The prospect of returning on quicker ground, over an inadequate trip, makes me think of this as a tightener. 

1351 Turf Sprint (G2): Race 7, 11:10 a.m. ET

Japan has prevailed twice in this race, including with the filly Songline (2022), and #12 Ascoli Piceno (2-1) could be even better. The unbeaten champion juvenile filly of 2023, she was runner-up as the favorite in the 2024 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) and NHK Mile Cup (G1) versus males (despite desperately bad luck in the stretch). The Daiwa Major filly couldn’t overcome an unfavorable trip in Australia’s rich Golden Eagle in her latest, but she was beaten barely more than three lengths in a gigantic field. Reuniting with Christophe Lemaire can put her back in the win column. 

Compatriot #13 Ten Happy Rose (16-1) exits a terrific fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), where she chased the fast pace, struck the front in the stretch, and just got outfinished late. She should enjoy shortening up, but post 11 could make her task more challenging. The same concern about a wide draw applies to the other Japanese hope, #10 Win Marvel (10-1), who fits the conditions if he can work out a trip from post 12. 

Past U.S. flagbearer Casa Creed went close here twice, and #6 Howard Wolowitz (8-1) will try to score the breakthrough. The about 6 3/4-furlong trip ought to be ideal for him, if the lightly-raced four-year-old can handle the novelty of venturing abroad. But he’s coped with a variety of American tracks in his short career so far. 

Defending champion #1 Annaf (5-1) can’t be discounted, but my nagging scruple is that he might not be quite the same horse. While he entered on the upswing last year, he’s been working to get back into that level of form.

Bahraini shippers have been known to outperform their odds here, famously with Dark Power winning in 2020 and placing in 2021. We have three options in this category, and #5 Goemon (35-1) might be the one as he rides a three-race winning streak. By Dark Angel, the same sire as Dark Power, Goemon has easily defeated #3 Byline (40-1) who was third in this race a year ago. 

Red Sea Turf H. (G2): Race 8, 11:50 a.m. ET

My policy of avoiding the highweights in this staying handicap has stood up well historically, so by definition I’ll try to beat #1 Al Nayyir (5-1), #2 Gregory (5-1), and #3 Continuous (3-1) while respecting their claims. 

#4 Deira Mile (8-1) doesn’t carry much less at 133 pounds, but the Camelot colt sports strong British classic form. Fourth in the Derby (G1) at Epsom, he was third across the wire in last fall’s St Leger (G1), only to be demoted to fourth for interference. That marked him out as a very promising young stayer.

A similar case can be made for #5 Byzantine Dream (12-1), who was outpaced in the first two Japanese classics but rattled home fifth in the third jewel, the Kikuka Sho (G1), at this about 1 7/8-mile distance. The son of Epiphaneia gets a rider switch to Oisin Murphy, who’s known for clicking well with Japanese shippers in major international festivals. 

#8 Trafalgar Square (6-1) gets a more significant weight break under 129 pounds. Twice placed to the high-class Calandagan, he was last seen finishing second to Ballydoyle’s admirable Illinois in the Prix Chaudenay (G2) over Arc weekend. Trafalgar Square was then sold for $1.2 million at Arqana and transferred to Bhupat Seemar in Dubai. I was eagerly anticipating his Meydan debut Jan. 24, until he was scratched and ended up coming straight here. Note that #9 Epic Poet (10-1) was a near-miss third in that same Meydan tune-up.

Saudi Cup (G1): Race 9, 12:40 p.m. ET

Market leaders #5 Forever Young (8-5) and #9 Romantic Warrior (5-2) are intrinsically lovable performers despite their respective question marks in these conditions. 

Forever Young boasts the gold standard in dirt form through his valiant thirds in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The quibble on Saturday is cutting back to one turn for the first time since last year’s Saudi Derby. At least he’ll get an extra furlong than he had on that occasion, and he’s a more polished article than he was at this time a year ago. 

The distance and configuration are right in Romantic Warrior’s wheelhouse, but the surface is terra incognita. He’s sending encouraging signals that he’s getting over the track well, at least in the mornings. If Romantic Warrior is anywhere near as effective on dirt as he is on turf, we could see a race for the ages. The world’s richest racehorse has an implacable will to win, as evidenced in his exploits from his Hong Kong home to Australia, Japan, and Dubai. 

#4 Facteur Cheval (16-1) rates as an attractive “each-way” price play because he combines a high level of turf form with a sneaky dirt debut in Dubai. His third from way off the pace in the Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) behind #12 Walk of Stars (25-1) was enough to show an aptitude for the surface while setting him up for this main objective, in conditions that are more amenable. Note that Facteur Cheval won the 2024 Dubai Turf (G1) going this distance around one turn at Meydan. Japan’s 2023 Saudi Cup upsetter, Panthalassa, had won the previous year’s Dubai Turf (in a dead-heat), and the 2018 Dubai Turf star, Benbatl, placed in the inaugural Saudi Cup in 2020, so there’s precedent. 

#7 Ramjet (25-1) could be the Japanese shipper eligible to improve most in this spot. His breakout performance came in last year’s Hyacinth S. over a one-turn metric mile on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. Although he successfully stretched out thereafter, his progress has stalled of late when succumbing to Forever Young in about 1 1/4-mile prizes at home. Reverting in trip can put him in a different light. #13 Wilson Tesoro (20-1) probably would need a bit more ground to spring the upset, but being in the form of his life at present, he can’t be overlooked. #10 Ushba Tesoro (12-1), who was just denied here last year, appears to have lost a step, and the pace might not be as frenetic to suit his deep-closing style.

In casting about for bigger prices, I run the risk of underestimating American hope #8 Rattle N Roll (8-1). The Ken McPeek veteran outclassed the locals in the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3), and he has a better resume than last year’s upsetter Senor Buscador. Watch how the World Pool market develops, and he might end up being an even more enticing price than his morning line. 

Finally, I have to invoke the local longshot angle for #1 Al Musmak (50-1). After placing to the likes of Rosallion and Ghostwriter as a British juvenile, the Night of Thunder colt didn’t really meet expectations at three. But judging by how he bolted up in his Saudi debut at this track and trip, Al Musmak could be blossoming. 

Good luck and enjoy Saudi Cup Day!