2025 Saudi Cup: Top storylines

The world’s richest race, Saturday’s $20 million Saudi Cup (G1), is attracting the world’s all-time richest racehorse, Romantic Warrior. But Hong Kong’s decorated globetrotter will have to transfer his game to dirt against an international field of surface specialists, led by Japan’s Forever Young and U.S. shipper Rattle N Roll.

The undercard at King Abdulaziz Racecourse is no less intriguing. American interests include Cyclone State in the Saudi Derby (G3), champion Straight No Chaser in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2), and Howard Wolowitz in the 1351 Turf Sprint (G2).

Pending the final declarations, here are the top storylines for the Saudi Cup itself:

Can Romantic Warrior add dirt to his list of conquests?

Romantic Warrior arrives with an eight-race winning streak that demonstrates not only his superiority at Sha Tin, but his hardiness to prevail in challenging circumstances abroad. His current skein began with a gutsy victory in the 2023 Cox Plate (G1) in Australia, and he recently extended it in the Jan. 24 Jebel Hatta (G1) in his Dubai Carnival debut at Meydan. Last summer, Romantic Warrior shortened up to a metric mile to lift the Yasuda Kinen (G1) in Tokyo.

His combination of class, tactical adaptability, and strength of character suggests that Romantic Warrior can be a factor on dirt too, and jockey James McDonald has sounded optimistic. Indeed, he’s traveled fluently in his occasional barrier trials on the Sha Tin dirt (labeled “all-weather”). On the other hand, the Saudi surface is different, on top of the unique demands of race conditions. 

Trainer Danny Shum indicated that his stable star will almost certainly revert to grass for the April 5 Dubai Turf (G1), rather than staying on dirt for the Dubai World Cup (G1). Should we read anything into that update about his plans? Maybe not, since Facteur Cheval has the same Saudi Cup-to-Dubai Turf itinerary despite placing in his prep on the Meydan dirt. 

Forever Young returns to scene of his first international triumph

Unbeaten on the Japanese dirt at two, Forever Young commenced his ambitious sophomore campaign in the 2024 Saudi Derby. The Yoshito Yahagi pupil appeared up against it after a suboptimal break, but he caught fire late to get up on the line. By snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, around a one-turn metric mile that was short enough for him, he hinted of above-average ability.

Fast forward a year, and Forever Young returns for the main event, the Saudi Cup, as a more polished performer at the highest level. As the near-miss third in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and third again in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), he brings the best dirt form. Forever Young has raced in the interim, remaining perfect in Japan when capturing the Dec. 29 Tokyo Daishoten (G1) over Saudi Cup foes Wilson Tesoro, Ramjet, and Ushba Tesoro.

If Forever Young delivers another top-drawer effort, Yahagi would become the first trainer to win the Saudi Cup twice. He sent out Panthalassa to spring the upset here in 2023.

Rattle N Roll bids to make lightning strike twice for Saudi investor

One year ago, Sharaf Mohammed Al-Hariri leased Senor Buscador in advance of his Saudi Cup upset, as he nabbed Ushba Tesoro in the shadow of the wire. Now he’s leased (correction: bought into) another strong American closer, Rattle N Roll, in hopes of repeating the feat.

This time, we already know that Rattle N Roll excels in the Saudi Cup conditions. Trainer Kenny McPeek shipped him early for the prestigious qualifier over this track and trip, the Jan. 25 Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3), and he rallied in grand style to win going away by 4 3/4 lengths. 

Big names defect from Saudi Cup

The robust Japanese presence, and Romantic Warrior’s bold gambit, are lending much-needed luster after the Saudi Cup lost a few big names.

The past two Breeders’ Cup Classic winners, reigning hero Sierra Leone and 2023 victor White Abarrio, were recently ruled out. While Sierra Leone’s timetable was compromised by a foot abscess, White Abarrio’s connections preferred to focus on a stateside campaign. Considering his disappointment here as the favorite last year, it’s understandable that White Abarrio would rather stay domestic instead of risking a loss of his freshly regained form. A similar thought process is keeping Locked at home.  

Perhaps the biggest bombshell was the defection of 2024 Dubai World Cup (G1) conqueror Laurel River, who encountered an ill-timed setback. Trainer Bhupat Seemar expects him to be ready to defend his World Cup title at Meydan on April 5.

Walk of Stars likely inherits the pace role

Laurel River’s absence is key for the pace scenario as well, since his take-no-prisoners style assures a fast tempo. Stablemate Walk of Stars figures to take over that front-running role.

Previously a bridesmaid in stakes company, Walk of Stars has suddenly discovered a killer instinct since becoming a pacesetter at Meydan. The Dubawi gelding crushed the Dec. 20 Entisar S. by 11 lengths and followed up versus better company in the Jan. 24 Al Maktoum Challenge (G1).

The cutback to about nine furlongs around one turn here theoretically suits, although Dubai denizens don’t always act as effectively in Riyadh. 

Facteur Cheval can improve with change in venue

The difference between the Dubai and Saudi dirt is one factor that could help Facteur Cheval improve from his third in the Al Maktoum Challenge. That was a most encouraging dirt debut for the French shipper, especially considering that he was trapped well back in the field on the inside before getting free. 

Facteur Cheval had to brave the fierce kickback at Meydan, but it’s not an issue for closers to deal with here. Note also that the King Abdulaziz Racecourse stretch is 100 meters longer. Since his signature win came in last year’s Dubai Turf at this trip and around a similar configuration, Facteur Cheval has claims if he does move up on the change in venue. Remember that the Team Valor and Gary Barber colorbearer was at one stage in the mix for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Ex-Baffert Defunded among local hopes

Although the locally-based runners are usually up against it when the shippers descend, they’re not a forlorn hope. Emblem Road famously paid $229.20 when shocking the 2022 Saudi Cup, and Great Scot snared third at a big price in 2021.

Seven horses are projected to fly the Saudi flag, including Defunded, a multiple Grade 1-winning millionaire in his former life with Bob Baffert. Only seventh in last year’s Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup, the Dialed In gelding broke through with his first local win in a Jan. 17 course-and-distance affair. His back class could come into play.

A pair of high-caliber Argentinians, the top two from the Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini (G1), will be making their debut for new connections. El Kodigo was just denied by Intense for Me in that Dec. 14 renewal of the South American “Arc,” but the switch to dirt is a strong pointer to a form reversal. While the versatile El Kodigo is his continent’s top dirt horse, he’s also cutting back sharply in trip after plying his trade at upwards of 1 1/2 miles. 

Not to be overlooked is a recent European import, Al Musmak, who just bolted up in his dirt debut at this track and trip Jan. 4. By the successful Dubawi stallion Night of Thunder, Al Musmak showed glimpses of talent for Roger Varian on the British turf, and he stands to blossom with maturity. 

We’ll be back later in the week with more analysis of Saudi Cup Day.