Australia: Spot plays for Day 1 of The Championships

Friday night is a big one in the land Down Under. Australia’s Randwick hosts day one of The Championships, and the card is loaded with some of the most accomplished horses in the country running for Group 1 glory.

Here, I’ll take a look at several races on the world-class program and see if we can find places to take swings and make money. Let’s dive into a few spot plays I’m very excited about!

Race 1: Kindergarten S. (G3)

We’ll start in the opener, as I think this 5 1/2-furlong sprint has a ton of speed on tap. Given the likely race shape, the way she’s improving, and the likelihood of a price, I like #10 Alabama Magic (21-1) quite a bit.

Alabama Magic is winless in three tries to date, but she’s run up against some tough groups. Most recently, she was a late-running third in the Magic Night (G3). Her speed ratings (accessible through past performances available on TwinSpires) have increased with each start, and based on those, she doesn’t need to step forward all that much here in order to be competitive.

Furthermore, I genuinely think she may be the only horse in here that wants to pass others late. Several will be headed to the front early, and the faster they go in the first quarter-mile, the better Alabama Magic’s chances figure to be. Maybe this sprint is too short for a closer to fully capitalize, but if you think the race falls apart (and I think it might), this filly seems like the one you want to use.

Race 3: Chairman’s Quality H. (G2)

It’s tough to look like a chalk-eater in a race with 20 horses signed on. However, if you subscribe to the notion that pace makes the race, I don’t see how you can avoid #3 Alalcance (2-1) in here.

This mare comes in on a two-race win streak and seems like the only true “speed horse” in the field. In fact, many of her opponents aren’t even stalking types. They’re deep closers who would benefit from another rival going with Alalcance out of the gate. However, I’ve looked up and down this field several times over, and I just don’t think that happens.

I think Alalcance leads this field every step of the way. She’s a mare that’s only getting better in her five-year-old season, and she seems in line to get an absolutely perfect trip in this spot. As much as I’d love to give you another price, I think she’s a single in any relevant multi-race exotics.

Race 7: T J Smith (G1)

We start the Late Pick 4 (or, as the locals call it, the quaddie) in this one. As good as this field is, and I think it’s excellent, I also think there’s a very clear standout, and that horse is not the morning line favorite.

#1 Overpass (11-2) has been one of the fastest sprinters in Australia for several years now. He’s got plenty of layoff lines in his recent history, so it’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, but when he’s right, he’s lightning-quick and capable of some special stuff.

In fact, he hasn’t run since a Group 1 score in November. However, a quick scan of the form shows Overpass has run some of his best races after being freshened up. His barrier trials have been solid, and he sure seems to be the only major contender who wants to be forwardly placed early on.

It’s shocking to say this, but there just isn’t much early speed signed on in this Group 1 sprint. Overpass, however, has shown an ability to win in wire-to-wire fashion, and I think that’s the trip he gets here. If the 11-2 morning line price holds up, he’ll be one of my biggest bets of the evening.