Cheltenham Festival: Spot Plays for Tuesday, March 11

I’ve been privileged to do some cool stuff when it comes to international horse racing. I’ve covered racing from the Hong Kong Jockey Club since last spring, and I’ve delved into the Australian scene on numerous podcasts.

This week marks another circuit to check off the list, as I’ll be offering spot plays during the Cheltenham Festival. We’ll kick things off Tuesday at the world-famous jumping venue, and here are a few runners I’ll have my eye on.

Race 3, 10:40 a.m. ET: #22 The Short Go (20-1 ML)

This is the first race of the meet with a gigantic field. Twenty-four runners are entered for this 3 1/8-mile journey, and I’m going to take a swing with a runner that’s done fairly well at this route in the past.

Two starts ago, #22 The Short Go ran second of 14 at this route. He was 11 lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher, and that effort was good enough to get him a spot in a Grade 3 event. He fell that day, but has been rested up since that disappointment.

The Short Go gets in light on weight at 148 pounds (20 less than the field’s highweight, #1 Trelawne), and he may appreciate what’s likely to be drier going. Many of the runners in here have spent lots of time competing over yielding and soft going, and they may prefer more give in the ground than they’re likely to get on Tuesday. Given this one’s likely price, I’m pretty interested.

Race 4, 11:20 a.m. ET: #7 July Flower (10-1 ML)

Admittedly, I’m taking a swing here in the Mares’ Hurdle (G1). #9 Lossiemouth won this race last year and is probably the most likely winner in here, but 3-5 is too short for me to stomach on a runner that was beaten two back and fell last time out. I wouldn’t mind something in the 2-1 to 5-2 range, but I don’t think that’s the price we’re getting.

The 4-1 second choice, #4 Jade de Grugy, has spent her career on soft and heavy going, and given the weather forecast, that’s not ideal. That leaves me searching for an alternative, and I landed on #7 July Flower.

This runner has competitive back form, having finished third in a Grade 1 in France two starts ago. She then went away for a while and came back with an easy score against Grade 3 foes at this distance in Ireland, and that was over good ground.

This is certainly a class test, to be sure. Will I be shocked if Lossiemouth or Jade de Grugy run big ones? No. However, I think they’re underlays at their likely prices, and July Flower hits me as a much better value play. At a minimum, she looks like she’s going the right way and could benefit from the track condition.

Race 7, 1:20 p.m. ET: #6 Haiti Couleurs (4-1 ML)

The conditions of this race are not a misprint. They’re going 3 3/4 miles in this one, and if that sounds like an unfamiliar distance, know that it’s unfamiliar to most of these runners, too.

I looked for horses that have succeeded going longer than three miles, and that’s a big reason why I like #6 Haiti Couleurs. His wins two and three back came going 3 1/8 miles, and his lone start over good going was a 15-length romp in November. The 158-pound impost isn’t a small one, but he does get a few pounds from the highweights, and he’s a consistent sort with four wins and nine top-three finishes in 11 career outings.

#5 Now Is The Hour is your 7-2 morning line favorite, but it sure seems like he’s going the wrong way of late after showing plenty of potential in early 2024. I much prefer the second choice, a runner that I don’t think will be intimidated by the stretch-out in distance.