Hong Kong: Selections for Sha Tin night of Jan. 4

Luke Middlebrook provides analysis and selections for the Sunday card at Sha Tin, with a first post of midnight ET late Saturday night. 

Selections for Sha Tin

Race 1: #1 Country Dancer, #4 Speedy Fortune, #3 Silver Destiny, #5 Same To You
Race 2: #6 Circuit Jolly, #2 Alluring Laos, #9 Club Ace, #5 Enjoy Golf
Race 3: #3 Capital Delight, #1 Sword Point, #7 Turin Mascot, #8 Yellowfin
Race 4: #3 Elegant Life, #2 Hong Lok Golf, #7 Ka Ying Radiance, #1 King Profit
Race 5: #7 Sight Supreme, #2 Thesis, #3 Reliable Profit, #12 Happydearhappydeer
Race 6: #4 Red Elegance, #5 Ka Ying Victory, #10 Aurio, #2 Dream Winner
Race 7: #4 Wunderbar, #6 Gorgeous Win, #3 Raging Blizzard, #9 Swift Ascend
Race 8: #8 Swagger Bro, #4 Pakistan Legacy, #1 Mighty Stride, #9 Conspirator
Race 9: #1 Magnificent Nine, #11 Win Speed, #3 Master Of All, #2 Another World
Race 10: #11 Light Years Charm, #13 Packing Angel, #2 Kaholo Angel, #7 Lo Pan Spirit

Race Analysis

Race 1: TSAM CHUK WAN HANDICAP

#1 Country Dancer ticks plenty of boxes here, backing up quickly and stepping up in trip. He impressed two starts ago with a breakthrough win before producing a fast-finishing second down the 1000-meter Sha Tin straight. #4 Speedy Fortune gets more favorable conditions switching to this course and distance, and his form has been strong since joining the David Eustace stable. #3 Silver Destiny can improve on his second attempt in Class 5, reverting to turf, while barrier 1 and Zac Purton aboard are major positives for this Dennis Yip-trained runner. #5 Same To You, despite drawing barrier 11, should press forward to race prominently and wasn’t far off Country Dancer the last time they met.

Race 2: TAI MONG TSAI HANDICAP

#6 Circuit Jolly gets another chance to break through for his first win after narrowly going down last time in a race that has produced solid subsequent form. In an open contest with many chances, a mid-draw for the straight track should provide every opportunity. #2 Alluring Laos impressed with a smart debut win, hinting at further upside. However, his trial between runs was just fair after a slow start, so it’ll be interesting to see if he jumps cleanly second-up here. #9 Club Ace ran a promising third on debut for the John Size stable over this distance at Happy Valley and can be expected to take another step forward, as many from the yard often do. #5 Enjoy Golf has stronger form over longer trips but returns first-up after a solid trial and looks poised to sprint well fresh.

Race 3: PAK TAM CHUNG HANDICAP

#3 Capital Delight has had one attempt at this course and distance, four starts ago, where he appeared no match for Sword Point on paper. However, he was held up for a significant portion of the straight and never got a proper chance to challenge. #1 Sword Point returns to the scene of his dominant win three starts back, which came on his first all-weather attempt. While he capitalized on a slow pace that day, the small field here should produce a moderate tempo, which again suits his style. #7 Turin Mascot, third to Sword Point in that win, franked the form with a victory in his next start. He now returns to this track and trip, which looks ideal after two disappointing efforts at Happy Valley. #8 Yellowfin has the early speed to put himself in the race, a trait that could be pivotal in this small field, depending on how much pressure unfolds up front.

Race 4: TAI LAM HANDICAP

#3 Elegant Life is edging closer to his first Hong Kong win for the in-form Benno Yung stable. His last-start fourth had plenty of merit, closing hard and fast against an on-pace-dominated race shape despite encountering trouble throughout. #2 Hong Lok Golf caused a boilover on debut with a shock win at big odds, but the subsequent form from that race has been strong. He could well repeat the dose. #7 Ka Ying Radiance is a newcomer for the David Hayes yard who has shown ability, though his slow starts in trials could be a concern if replicated on race day. However, Purton takes the ride from barrier 2, which commands respect. #1 King Profit drops into Class 4 after his best performance yet, a runner-up finish to Divano at the bottom of Class 3—a strong formline for a race of this caliber.

Race 5: THE PO LEUNG KUK CUP (HANDICAP)

#7 Sight Supreme finally broke through for his first career win at start number five, delivering an impressive performance on his all-weather debut last time. Size-trained runners typically hold their form and improve, so if he handles the extra trip, he should go back-to-back. #2 Thesis makes his second attempt in Class 4 and is worth following after performing well without much luck in recent runs on this surface over the extended mile. #3 Reliable Profit faces another challenge from the widest barrier but can’t be overlooked. He fought on gamely for fifth last start, despite a tough run from a wide draw and the drop back in distance. #12 Happydearhappydeer has shown tactical versatility and consistent improvement, recording back-to-back placings suggesting a win is just around the corner.

Race 6: TAI TONG SHAN HANDICAP

#4 Red Elegance ran a closing sixth last start but had excuses after copping a check at the 600-meter mark, losing ground. Back to this course and distance, he looks well suited to rebound in what shapes up as an open contest. #5 Ka Ying Victory returns to a more suitable course and distance after a moderate effort over 1200 meters last start. His first-up run down the straight was full of merit despite encountering multiple issues, including being badly held up and unable to be fully tested. #10 Aurio comes off his best Hong Kong performance to date, flashing home late for third just seven days ago. #2 Dream Winner deserves consideration as he seeks to rediscover the form of his early career at a course and distance he excels over. His recent trial win was encouraging, but race-day pressure will reveal whether he’s ready to bounce back.

Race 7: TAI TONG HANDICAP

#4 Wunderbar had a tough run last start from a wide draw, racing three deep throughout and responding only fairly in the straight to finish fifth. Despite the testing trip, he wasn’t beaten far, and with a much kinder draw in barrier 2, he should enjoy a better run and has every chance to bounce back to his best. #6 Gorgeous Win, coming from the same race, was ridden quietly from a wide gate and stormed home late into second, marking a strong return to form. He has shown the ability to settle closer to the pace, as demonstrated in his win five starts ago, and the small field should suit him nicely here. #3 Raging Blizzard benefited from a fast-run race last start to edge out Gorgeous Win, and while this event may lack similar pace, there’s no reason he won’t show up in a similar vein of form. #9 Swift Ascend has been thriving since the blinkers were applied, rocketing up the ratings for Eustace. Although this represents his toughest test yet, his current form suggests he’s capable of measuring up.

Race 8: LEIGHTON HANDICAP

#8 Swagger Bro showed promise on debut, closing strongly into sixth after being ridden quietly from barrier 1. He displayed more positive tactics during his Australian racing career, which may be utilized second-up here, especially having drawn nicely low in barrier 2 again. #4 Pakistan Legacy, making his debut, has had ample time to acclimatize to Hong Kong. Purton has been aboard for all his barrier trials, a notable sign of confidence as he steps out for the first time for Chris So. #1 Mighty Stride has had no luck with wide barriers, and his last start was no exception, as he attempted to roll forward but ended up caught wide throughout, leaving him without a finishing effort. #9 Conspirator debuts for the Mark Newnham stable, and his most recent trial, finishing second to Magic Control, was full of promise.

Race 9: CAROLINE HILL HANDICAP

#1 Magnificent Nine has shown ability without winning locally from 14 attempts, but the drop into Class 4 presents a golden opportunity. With form around Markwin and My Wish in recent runs, he looks well placed to capitalize as he reunites with Purton. #11 Win Speed was used up early from a wide draw last start, leaving him with little left in the straight, but his prior consistent form suggests he can bounce back here. #3 Master Of All is a reliable frontrunner who should give another honest account and could prove hard to peg back if left uncontested up front. #2 Another World caused an upset last start when stepping up to 1400 meters for the first time, but the step up in distance looks to be key to his progress.

Race 10: BROADWOOD HANDICAP

#11 Light Years Charm is an intriguing prospect for the Eustace stable, showing plenty of potential after an eye-catching local debut. Despite being slowly away, he mustered quickly but subsequently was held up until passing the 250-meter mark in the straight, closing strongly to finish fifth, beaten 3.75 lengths. With improvement to come, he’s one to follow. #13 Packing Angel takes on Class 3 after a dominant last-start win in Class 4, where he put away Legend Of St Paul’s, who franked the form with a win at Sha Tin midweek. A progressive type for Francis Lui. #2 Kaholo Angel also comes from the same race as Light Years Charm, where he ran a huge race into second despite a wide draw and a pace-biased race shape. #7 Lo Pan Spirit has been hindered by wide barriers in recent starts and once again faces a challenge from gate 13. However, he’s acquitted himself well over the mile, and the drop back in distance could play to his strengths.