Top storylines for 2025 Dubai World Cup: Forever Young bids for historic double

The storylines for Saturday’s Dubai World Cup (G1) extravaganza are crystallizing, pending the post position fortunes – or misfortunes – of the contenders in five Thoroughbred Group 1 events. Their fates will be decided at Wednesday’s draw, but at least the fields are now set with few changes from the original prospectus.

The weather became a storyline itself on Tuesday. With intense heat in the forecast, Dubai Racing Club officials have decided to shift post times an hour later than originally scheduled on Saturday. Watch the preliminaries and note if some horses appear more affected by the hot conditions.

Now onto the racing storylines. Aside from intriguing match-ups and form pointers, we could witness history-making performances that rewrite the record book. 

Forever Young set for first Saudi Cup/Dubai World Cup double.

The highest-rated horse in the world after his Saudi Cup (G1) victory, Forever Young appears poised to turn an unprecedented Mideast dirt double in Dubai. Of course, the Saudi Cup is an upstart in comparison to the World Cup, making for a very small sample size. Since its 2020 inaugural, just two reigning Saudi Cup winners have attempted the World Cup.

Forever Young’s trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, has tried once before, with 2023 Saudi Cup upsetter Panthalassa. But the situation is nowhere near analogous, since Panthalassa was a turf performer who had flopped in his only prior dirt start a couple of years earlier. Handed an unfavorably wide draw in the World Cup, front-running Panthalassa faded to 10th. Finishing third that day was the 2022 Saudi Cup shocker, Emblem Road, who did not go for the double in the same year. 

In 2024, deep closer Senor Buscador got up in the nick of time in the Saudi Cup, but he settled for third on the step up in trip in Dubai. Indeed, the different conditions of the two prizes – about 1 1/8 miles around one turn in Saudi, versus about 1 1/4 miles around two turns at Meydan – suggest that they cater to different aptitudes.

Forever Young is better suited to the World Cup, in principle, and he has more in hand over his opponents here than he did against Saudi Cup archrival Romantic Warrior. If the Japanese superstar delivers his usual performance, he’ll add to the annals of World Cup history in another respect. Forever Young would join Thunder Snow as the only UAE Derby (G2) winners to capture the World Cup. 

Ushba Tesoro hopes to regain World Cup crown in career finale.

Such is the depth of the Japanese dirt division that Ushba Tesoro, the 2023 Dubai World Cup hero and runner-up a year ago, could get lost in the shuffle. The eight-year-old proved that he was still capable when finishing third to Forever Young and Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup, beating compatriots Wilson Tesoro and Ramjet in a reversal of recent form. 

Ushba Tesoro will make his swan song on Saturday. Younger stablemate Wilson Tesoro has the upside, which is presumably why jockey Yuga Kawada switched from “Ushba” to “Wilson” last fall. Still, it’s easy to root for the venerable earner of more than $18.5 million. If Ushba can go out in a blaze of glory, he’d become just the second two-time World Cup winner after Thunder Snow (2018-19), and the first to do so in non-consecutive years. But he’s been known not to enjoy the heat, so the forecast isn’t helpful.

Did O’Shea choose the right Seemar in World Cup repeat bid?

When Laurel River produced a front-running tour de force in the 2024 World Cup, Bhupat Seemar became the first UAE-based horseman outside the Godolphin orbit to win Dubai’s iconic race. Although Laurel River sustained a setback that ruled him out of a title defense, Seemar is the only local trainer represented in the 2025 World Cup. And he’s double-handed with Walk of Stars and Imperial Emperor, the one-two from the Jan. 24 Al Maktoum Challenge (G1).

The stablemates have gone in dramatically different directions, however, in their latest. Walk of Stars flopped in the Saudi Cup, retreating to 12th of 14, but Imperial Emperor continued his upward trajectory with a romp in Super Saturday’s Al Maktoum Classic (G2) at the World Cup trip. 

Perennial leading rider Tadhg O’Shea had to decide between them, both sons of Dubawi with similarly forward running styles. For whatever it’s worth, I think he picked the right one in Imperial Emperor. 

U.S. World Cup challenge a little short on star power.

With Sierra Leone, Locked, White Abarrio, and Mindframe all resisting the lure of Mideast riches like a siren song, the U.S. team for the World Cup isn’t as formidable as it might have been.

Rattle N Roll, arguably the best of the U.S. shippers, looks like the type to move forward from a belated fifth in the Saudi Cup. Note that the Kenny McPeek veteran would have a bankroll even bigger than $3.3 million if he hadn’t been out of action for an entire year. 

Millionaire Hit Show, who performed respectably through the 2023 Triple Crown, remains a solid campaigner as an older horse. But his remote third behind Locked in the Santa Anita H. (G1) doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. The Doug O’Neill duo of Mixto and Katonah likewise figure to be slugging it out for the minors at best, and Il Miracolo has a mountain to climb off the layoff. 

Barring a regression on the part of Forever Young, the U.S. is likely to lose three World Cups in a row. That’s happened just once before, during Meydan’s synthetic era. The World Cups on dirt historically revolved around the U.S. and Godolphin, but it’s a pointer to the shifting international landscape that it’s no longer the case. 

Flood Zone, Queen Azteca aim to buck UAE Derby trends.

In contrast, the UAE Derby has been virtually insoluble for U.S. shippers, with the Brendan Walsh-trained Plus Que Parfait (2019) the one exception to the rule. Flood Zone will try to defy that stat while stretching out from the one-turn mile of the Gotham (G3) to about 1 3/16 miles here for Brad Cox.

It’s worth wondering how Cox might have charted Flood Zone’s path to the Kentucky Derby (G1) for different connections. He’s owned by Wathnan Racing of Qatar, like stablemate Hit Show in the World Cup. 

In any event, the UAE Derby will have plenty of Kentucky Derby ramifications as the final leg of the new Euro/Mideast Road. Its points are still awarded on the 100-50-25-15-10 paradigm, applicable to the Euro/Mideast Road rather than the main leaderboard. Two invitations to Churchill Downs are at stake.

A top performance from UAE Oaks (G3) winner Queen Azteca could also affect the Kentucky Oaks (G1) picture, since she has 50 points in the bank toward the first Friday in May. Trainer Niels Petersen has sounded circumspect about traveling to Louisville though. Only one filly has prevailed over males here, Khawlah (2011), and if Queen Azteca can emulate her, chances are it would come at the expense of a grueling effort.

Luxor Cafe form on trial in UAE Derby.

Japan has won the UAE Derby the past three years, courtesy of Crown Pride (2022), Derma Sotogake (2023), and Forever Young, and a four-strong squad will try to keep the streak alive. The most accomplished of them, Shin Forever, exits a second in the Saudi Derby (G3). But their best dirt prospect in 2025, Luxor Cafe, already booked his Kentucky Derby ticket at home via the Japan Road. 

While Luxor Cafe is not here himself, you might say that he has proxies – three of the vanquished from his Hyacinth S. victory in third-placer Don in the Mood, fourth Admire Daytona, and fifth Dragon. The better they do at Meydan, the more they can boost Luxor Cafe’s stock. 

Straight No Chaser tackles defending champ Tuz in ‘Golden’ clash.

The Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) could be an epic clash between Straight No Chaser, the reigning American champion sprinter, and the all-conquering local Tuz, whose five-race winning spree commenced in last year’s edition. Either one would rank as an historic winner.

Straight No Chaser is angling to become the first reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) victor to collect the trophy here. Secret Circle won both in different years, taking the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in 2013 and the Shaheen in 2015. Straight No Chaser, who just dominated the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) on Saudi Cup Day, would also be the first to turn the Mideast sprint double. 

Tuz is riding the crest of an historic wave already, having swept all four of the Carnival’s recognized stepping stones to the division’s marquee event. Winning the Dubai Golden Shaheen again would put the crowning touch on a perfect season at Meydan. He’d join two past sprint legends as a repeat winner, Caller One (at old Nad al Sheba in 2001-02) and Mind Your Biscuits (2017-18).

Rebel’s Romance would make history thrice over if repeating in Sheema.

No horse has won the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) twice, so Godolphin gladiator Rebel’s Romance would stand alone in the record book if he can repeat in the about 1 1/2-mile turf contest. But there’s more history on the line. 

Rebel’s Romance would become the first to win the Sheema as the reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) champion. Godolphin celebrity Fantastic Light scored in the Sheema first (2000) and later in the Turf (2001). Coolmore’s admirable St Nicholas Abbey captured the 2011 Turf, but didn’t add the Sheema until 2013. 

Moreover, Rebel’s Romance would belong to the select club of horses who won three times on World Cup night. Remember that back in his old dirt days in 2021, he rolled in the UAE Derby. The aforementioned Thunder Snow is also a three-time winner (UAE Derby and two World Cups), while the great stayer Vazirabad turned a three-peat in the Dubai Gold Cup (G2) (2016-18), and Lord North achieved a similar feat in the Dubai Turf (G1) (2021-23). 

Is Romantic Warrior unbeatable in the Dubai Turf?

Hong Kong’s living legend won eight straight on turf, including a course record-setting Jebel Hatta (G1) over this same distance, before just succumbing in his Saudi Cup dirt experiment. Romantic Warrior ought to rebound as clearly the highest-rated horse in the Dubai Turf. 

So dominant is he on paper that defending champion Facteur Cheval finds himself totally overshadowed. There might not be quite as much of a gap between Romantic Warrior and Liberty Island as the ratings imply; the Japanese champion was only 1 1/2 lengths off him in the Hong Kong Cup (G1). 

Even so, his rivals have to hope that Romantic Warrior regresses off what theoretically could have been a gut-buster in Saudi. But he’s showing no signs of going off the boil, and his Tuesday work over the course reiterated his well-being. He’s not liable to beat himself, so bad racing luck might be the potential worry.

Calandagan tops poster boys from Juddmonte International.

Last summer’s Juddmonte International (G1) ranked as the best race anywhere on the planet in 2024, according to the Longines World Thoroughbred Rankings. Calandagan, a gallant second to City of Troy in course-record time at York that day, and fifth-placer Durezza are better at the Sheema distance. So was the fourth-placer, Bluestocking, who retired at the top of her game as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) heroine.

Two Juddmonte International alumni are in the Dubai Turf. Third-placer Ghostwriter piques interest on the cutback to about 1 1/8 miles. Maljoom, a non-threatening eighth in the York feature, has been generally frustrating to follow. 

O’Neill seeks third Godolphin Mile with Raging Torrent.

Malibu (G1) star Raging Torrent brandishes better credentials than two other O’Neill trainees who won the Godolphin Mile (G2), Spring at Last (2007) and Two Rivers Over (2024). 

Spring at Last, second in the Malibu and Strub (G2), was coming off a fifth in the Big ‘Cap. He eventually earned a top-level score in the next year’s Donn H. (G1). Two Rivers Over had even less of a resume, with his signature win in the Zia Park Derby followed by a fourth in the San Pasqual (G2).

Not only does Raging Torrent have a Grade 1 to his name, but he’d previously beaten California win machine The Chosen Vron in the Pat O’Brien (G2) at Del Mar. Of course, extrapolations can be too simplistic, and he’ll need to be better than Spring at Last and Two Rivers Over to deal with a pretty deep cast in this year’s renewal.

Hong Kong ‘Rising’ by proxy in Al Quoz Sprint.

The Al Quoz Sprint (G1) has no shortage of storylines, from Carnival revelation West Acre bidding to become the first sophomore to win the turf dash, and Believing making her debut for Coolmore, to South African expat Isivunguvungu shipping in for Graham Motion. 

But I’ve got to note the gilt-edged Hong Kong form of Howdeepisyourlove, who’s been chasing the world’s best sprinter, Ka Ying Rising, at Sha Tin. That angle was key in Sunday’s Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1) at Chukyo; the victorious Satono Reve had been third to Ka Ying Rising in last December’s Hong Kong Sprint (G1).