It's Opening/closing day/race at Lincoln
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January 8th, 2013
The one-furlong contest with a $3,900 purse satisfies Nebraska law that requires tracks to conduct at least one live race a year to offer simulcasting.
Omaha Exposition and Racing is conducting the race and is offering win wagering only on the three-horse field with The Straw Man the 7-to-5 morning line favorite. The 11-year-old Canaveral gelding is unraced since April at Fonner but has two workouts this year at the track for owner-trainer Brian Roberts.
The Straw Man's nine-month layoff is the longest of the three entrants, but they've all been on the shelf since at least August 26. Still, the biggest question is probably the one-furlong distance of the race rather than the layoff since they've all posted a workout at Fonner this year.
Because of the distance, my choice is Sonic Bloom, the only "E" type in the race, and as the longest shot at 3-to-1, why not? The Straw Man is an "S" type who has run distance races, so I can't imagine a furlong is his optimal distance. Bluff Center Road is at least an "E/P" type, but the worst race on his page came at four furlongs, and while his E1 pace figures are faster than The Straw Man's, they're typically slower than Sonic Bloom.
A good jockey is essential for gate speed, and though The Straw Man has the biggest "name" in 19% rider Jake Olesiak, Sonic Bloom's rider, Jose Ranilla, is a solid 12% overall with a 15% strike rate on "E" types. Bluff Center Road's jockey, meanwhile, is a lowly 3% overall and an even worse 2% in sprints, which tells me any edge he might have would come in longer races.
Unfortunately, TwinSpires.com is not carrying this prestigious event from Lincoln, but I know a guy who knows some guys in Nebraska, so I'm hoping I can still "get down" on a top pick who also happens to be the longest shot on the morning line.
UPDATE: Sonic Bloom won and paid $3.20. See how easy it is to handicap with Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs?
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