Japan at the Breeders’ Cup: Historical pointers and trends

Japan is expected to send a formidable team to the Nov. 1-2 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar. Before we begin to look at the likely contenders, let’s review the Japanese shippers who have competed at the championships.

Although Japanese-based horses have compiled an overall record of 2-for-29, that stat obscures more meaningful trends. The historical pattern is one of improved performance over time. Trainer methodology also matters. 

It’s significant that both winners came at Del Mar in 2021, portending another bold showing as the festival returns to the same seaside venue. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi was single-handedly responsible for the historic double, courtesy of Loves Only You in the Filly & Mare Turf (G1) and Marche Lorraine in the Distaff (G1). 

Yahagi’s victories illustrate not only his ability to bring his horses to their peak on the big day, but also his astuteness in pinpointing hittable targets. Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine are his only Breeders’ Cup starters to date, giving him an amazing 100% strike rate.

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Breeders' Cup Classic

This year, Yahagi plans to send star three-year-old Forever Young to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). A near-miss third in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Forever Young has already established his credentials as an elite performer in U.S. conditions. 

Japan will look to build upon its best-ever Classic result from 2023. Derma Sotogake finished an excellent second at Santa Anita last year, and Ushba Tesoro rallied from far back for fifth. The first Breeders’ Cup starters for their respective trainers, Hidetaka Otonashi and Noboru Takagi, Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro are each on course for another Classic bid. 

In five prior runnings of the Classic between 1996 and 2010, Japanese hopefuls had been well beaten. 

So what’s changed in the intervening years? Japan’s constant drive to improve every aspect of the sport has paid dividends. From cultivating bloodlines, enhancing training techniques, and developing a stronger dirt program, Japan has positioned itself as a dual-surface power in the racing world. 

Breeders' Cup Distaff

Marche Lorraine signaled that shift by springing a nearly 50-1 upset in the Distaff. The first Japanese entrant in that event, she prepped with a win in the Breeders’ Gold Cup at Mombetsu. 

One of this year’s Distaff candidates, Awesome Result, will use the same steppingstone to Del Mar. Her trainer, Yasutoshi Ikee, will be making his second Breeders’ Cup appearance. 

Breeders' Cup Turf

Ikee’s first foray came in the 2012 Turf (G1) with Trailblazer, who finished a solid fourth at Santa Anita. Trailblazer wasn’t quite in the top rank at home. A known bleeder, he was also attracted by the availability of the antibleeding medication Lasix at that time. 

Since Japan’s turf horses have long been recognized as world-class, especially at classic distances, it stands to reason that they have consistently run well in the Turf. On the other hand, the sample size is a grand total of two. It took a decade for the next Japanese shipper to turn up in the Turf — Shahryar, an excellent third in 2023 and a key contender again in 2024.

The lack of participation in the Turf can be chalked up to the greater lure of staying home. Considering the prize money on offer in the prestigious fall events in Japan, connections have to weigh whether the long journey is worthwhile. If they do, it’s a hint worth taking. Shahryar sports a far better resume than Trailblazer did, but the idea is that U.S. conditions suit him particularly well.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

The Filly & Mare Turf has garnered a few more shippers. Of the five who lined up, three factored in the superfecta, led by the victorious Loves Only You. 

The record looks better if you disregard Maltese Superb as an outlier. She was a less accomplished sophomore, while the other four were Grade 1-winning older females. Maltese Superb also remained stateside to continue her career, suggesting that there was an additional motive for shipping. 

Breeders' Cup Mile

The Mile (G1) hasn’t been as productive a race for the Japanese, although only three have tried. A mile in North American racing caters to sharper types than the same distance over stiffer tracks in Japan. That may have reinforced the Japanese milers’ preference for more lucrative options nearer to home.

The versatile Songline might well have proved to be an exception, given her proficiency over shorter trips and around tighter circuits. Indeed, she went off as the slight 3.30-1 favorite in the 2023 Mile. Unfortunately, she exited the race lame, putting her a close fifth in a poignant context.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Similarly, the Turf Sprint (G1) at five or 5 1/2 furlongs is a shorter scramble than the division’s elite race over in Japan. No Japanese shipper attempted it until last year, when speedball Jasper Krone retreated to the tail of the field.

Other Breeders' Cup races on dirt

It’s no surprise that trainer Hideyuki Mori was the first to roll the dice in the Turf Sprint. He has had more Breeders’ Cup starters (nine) than any other Japanese horseman. That’s fitting, since Mori set the precedent for their international success. 

Long before Yahagi became famous, Mori was proving that Japan could win major races around the world. He was the first Japanese trainer to win a Group 1 abroad when Seeking the Pearl captured the 1998 Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1) at Deauville. Also the country’s trailblazer in the Kentucky Derby, Mori shipped Ski Captain to Churchill Downs in 1995. He finished 14th. 

Mori’s attempts at the Breeders’ Cup have tended to be as ambitious as his Derby gambit and with similar results. So far the only one willing to try the Dirt Mile (G1), Sprint (G1), and Juvenile (G1) as well, Mori is swinging for the fences with dirt horses again at Del Mar, entering Otomena Shacho in the Juvenile Fillies (G1), Ecoro Azel and Shin Believe in the Juvenile, and Meta Max in the Sprint.

Sprint

Filly & Mare Sprint

Dirt Mile

Juvenile

If Japan’s ongoing dirt revolution encourages more connections to send runners with better credentials, these races may not remain as elusive in the future.

The Juvenile figures to be the toughest to crack, considering that the Anglosphere places more emphasis on precocity. Because Japan’s focus is on long-term development, their best two-year-old prospects probably won’t be pushed enough to win a race of this magnitude abroad. Yet if the stateside crop is suboptimal one year, anything could happen.