Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Dec. 12, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Dec. 12 at Mahoning Valley and Zia Park, including a horse to single in Zia Park’s $13,763 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points at Zia Park: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Zia Park on Mondays and Tuesdays through Dec. 19.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (one mile, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Mr. Cellular (5-2) boasts a respectable 3-1-1-1 record racing one mile on dirt. He won a $12,500 maiden claimer over this trip at Gulfstream Park last winter and most recently finished second in a $5,000 claimer at Mahoning Valley.

Mr. Cellular brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and has every chance to win his second local start for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Luis Rivera and Anthony Farrior, who have teamed up to win at a 36% rate over the last two months. Let’s bet Mr. Cellular to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #4 Mr. Cellular (5-2)
• #1 Fire King (9-2)
• #8 Desert Highway (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Mr. Cellular

Zia Park: Race 2: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:33 p.m. ET)

#5 Grease Missle (1-1) has placed in a couple of stakes, most recently finishing third by 1 1/2 lengths in the six-furlong Zia Park Princess S. With Brisnet Speed ratings of 88, 75, and 79 under her belt, she’s the fastest filly in this allowance field and hands-down the runner to beat.

#3 Only One America (7-2), who finished fifth in the Zia Park Princess after setting the pace, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Grease Missle (1-1)
• #3 Only One America (7-2)
• #6 Mark It Down (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 3

Mountaineer: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 7:00 p.m. ET)

#7 Baby Dog (6-1) hails from the barn of Eddie Clouston, a high-percentage trainer who has gone 2-for-5 (40%) saddling first-time starters at Mountaineer since 2022. In a field filled primarily with first-time starters from trainers who rarely win with such runners, Baby Dog is an appealing price play to upset morning line favorite #6 Somesugarnspice (8-5).

The fact Baby Dog will be ridden by hot jockey Edgar Paucar (a 31% winner teaming up with Clouston over the last two months) adds to the appeal. Let’s bet Baby Dog to win and key him over Somesugarnspice in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Baby Dog (6-1)
• #6 Somesugarnspice (8-5)
• #1 Giacomo Casanova (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Baby Dog
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 6
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Zia Park: Race 6: $13,763 Pick 5 carryover (4:25 p.m. ET)

Tuesday can be a quiet day in U.S. horse racing, but this week is an exception thanks to an enticing $13,763 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Pick 5 at Zia Park.

The Pick 5 spans Race 6 through Race 10, a sequence encompassing 57 horses (averaging 11.4 per race) and 190,080 possible outcomes. Mathematically speaking, this is a mighty challenging Pick 5.

Bettors wanting to play competitive tickets on modest budgets will hope to identify a trustworthy single to build tickets around. Fortunately, a viable opportunity can be found right off the bat in Race 6, a $25,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt.

A field of 11 has been entered, but morning line favorite #10 My Good Good Boy (9-5) looks like a standout. Singling him will reduce the number of Pick 5 possibilities to consider from 190,080 down to 17,280, dramatically simplifying the process of constructing tickets.

My Good Good Boy hasn’t missed the board in four starts for trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral Jr., who wins at a 20% rate in maiden claimers. In his first three starts, he sandwiched second- and fourth-place finishes in maiden special weights around a fourth-place finish in the Manzano S. at Albuquerque, a race won by next-out Zia Park Princess S. winner Candy Aisle.

My Good Good Boy subsequently ran well in a $25,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Zia Park. After dueling for the lead, he weakened late to finish second by one length.

Some bettors might hesitate to single a horse who was beaten over this track and class level last time out, but Brisnet Speed ratings suggest that’s the way to go with My Good Good Boy. His first four starts have yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 75, 69, 68, and 69, significant since none of his Tuesday rivals have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 68.

Throw in the fact My Good Good Boy is cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs (the distance over which he earned his best Brisnet Speed rating), and the chestnut gelding is a compelling choice to start the Pick 5.

Good luck!