Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Dec. 13, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 13 at Turfway Park, including a horse to key on top in the $1,343 Super High 5 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Paulo Lobo has compiled a terrific 7-for-21 (33%) record saddling first-time starters at Turfway Park, which includes a 2-for-4 (50%) record debuting juveniles.

This bodes well for #10 Sandrinha Love (10-1), an unraced Lobo juvenile. The bay filly is a daughter of Karakontie, who sires an excellent 18% winners from first-time starters. Sandrinha Love has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for her debut and has a good chance to outrun her 10-1 morning line odds.

We’ll keep things straightforward with a win bet on Sandrinha Love.

Selections

• #10 Sandrinha Love (10-1)
• #9 High Sisu (5-1)
• #3 Teddyistrucking (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Sandrinha Love

Turfway Park: Race 4: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Crystal Symphony (6-1) has finished fifth and seventh in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition. In a five-furlong dirt sprint at Churchill Downs, she came home seven lengths behind next-out allowance optional claiming winner Sharp Tune. In a 1 1/16-mile grass route, she finished 5 3/4 lengths behind Austere, who returned to win the Juvenile Fillies S. at Kentucky Downs and finish a close fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).

Trainer Philip Sims wins at a 20% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so Crystal Symphony is eligible to fire a winning shot while tackling easier competition. We’ll bet her to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #4 Crystal Symphony (6-1)
• #2 Blenheim Baby (7-2)
• #5 Classy’n Connected (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Crystal Symphony

Turfway Park: Race 5: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Riperton (5-1) looks like a great fit in this two-turn allowance for juvenile fillies. She’s cracked the exacta in three of her four starts, with her lone miss being a fifth-place finish against a strong field in the Pocahontas (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.

Riperton exits a runner-up finish in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland, in which she was beaten one length after setting the pace. She may find the competition a bit easier at Turfway, so let’s take a shot betting Riperton to win and keying her over Keeneland debut winner #9 Celtic Charm (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Riperton (5-1)
• #9 Celtic Charm (3-1)
• #12 Pounce (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Riperton
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 9
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $1,343 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The final race on Wednesday at Turfway Park features a $1,343 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The evening finale is Race 9, an ultra-competitive maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta. A field of 14 (including two also-eligibles) has been entered, but 13 of the 14 have yet to race over a synthetic track, and the lone runner with synthetic experience—#14 Enzi (20-1), the second also-eligible entrant—finished a distant eighth when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight at Turfway Park two weeks ago.

In other words, there isn’t much form to analyze. So why not take a straightforward approach and focus on #3 Mysidehustle (6-1), the fastest horse in the field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective?

A daughter of Belmont (G1) winner Union Rags, Mysidehustle debuted in a maiden special weight for horses who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction. Sprinting six furlongs over the Churchill Downs dirt, Mysidehustle rallied boldly from ninth place to finish second, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths while gaining 5 3/4 lengths through the final furlong alone. This performance was flattered when the third-place finisher, Krickle, returned to win her next start over the same conditions.

Mysidehustle likewise stuck to the same class level for her second start, which came sprinting seven furlongs over the Keeneland dirt. This time, Mysidehustle could only rally for fourth place, but it turns out the caliber of competition was deep—the victorious Accommodate Eva won the Louisiana Champions Day Lassie S. at Fair Grounds last Saturday, while runner-up Mixer smashed her next start over the same class level by 4 3/4 lengths.

Wednesday’s contest at Turfway Park isn’t restricted from an auction price standpoint, but the caliber of competition at Turfway tends to be easier than at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, so Mysidehustle should be a good fit for this race. Getting back to Brisnet Speed ratings, her first two starts yielded numbers of 80 and 75, significant since only one of her Wednesday rivals has ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 75. That would be #8 Enduring (3-1), a Mark Casse trainee who posted a 76 when finishing third on debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Colonial Downs turf course.

Enduring is a logical contender after posting a pair of bullet half-mile workouts at Turfway Park, but she showed lots of speed when setting the pace in her debut, and speed tends to be at a disadvantage over the Turfway Tapeta. Mysidehustle’s stretch-running style is a better fit for this track, so we suggest keying Mysidehustle on top. If she wins at her 6-1 morning line odds, we’ll have every chance to cash an enticing Super High 5 payoff.

Good luck!