Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Dec. 4, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 4 at Mahoning Valley and Zia Park, along with thoughts on the $681 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points at Zia Park: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Zia Park on Mondays and Tuesdays through Dec. 19.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: $25,000 Claiming (one mile, 1:12 p.m. ET)

#4 Mission Girl (5-2) has been sprinting as of late and exits a pacesetting third-place finish over this track and class level. But running long is her strong suit; her last three starts racing one mile have yielded two wins and a second against allowance competition.

Mission Girl figures to secure a favorable forwardly-placed trip while stretching back out over one mile for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Erik Barbaran and Robert Gorham, who have won at a 36% rate teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s bet Mission Girl to win and key her over #1 Windy Lu Who (8-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #4 Mission Girl (5-2)
• #1 Windy Lu Who (8-5)
• #6 High Fire (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Mission Girl
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1
  Total: $25

Zia Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:05 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Joel Marr has gone 4-for-14 (29%) debuting juveniles at Zia Park. This bodes well for #10 Sinai (10-1), an unraced two-year-old who has shown some speed in the mornings at Zia Park. On Oct. 18, he clocked half a mile from the starting gate in a swift :47 1/5.

Sinai is a son of Punctuate, who sires 22% winners from first-time starters. And jockey Miguel Fuentes Jr. has won at a 23% rate teaming up with Marr over the last two months, so there are a lot of high-percentages angles suggesting Sinai is an overlay at 10-1.

Let’s bet Sinai to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #10 Sinai (10-1)
• #5 Magic Storm (9-2)
• #4 Marking Canyon (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #10 Sinai

Mahoning Valley: Race 7: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:33 p.m. ET)

#2 Dial for Love (3-1) misfired in a couple of recent $5,000 claimers at Charles Town, finishing fourth and seventh. But not every horse relishes racing around that smaller, bullring oval.

Dial for Love had previously dueled for the lead on her way to winning a $10,000 maiden claimer at Parx Racing. She’s eligible to bounce back while returning to a normal-sized track at Mahoning, especially since trainer Anthony Farrior has gone 12-for-32 (38%) at Mahoning this meet.

A win bet on Dial for Love is in order, along with an exacta using #4 Constitutionalist (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Dial for Love (3-1)
• #4 Constitutionalist (7-2)
• #7 Flash of Cherokee (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Dial for Love
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $681 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

No one hit the Super High 5 on Sunday night at Mountaineer, which means Monday’s card features a non-jackpot Super High 5 carryover worth $681.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 8, a $4,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The six-furlong dirt sprint has drawn an overflow field of 13, with three horses on the also-eligible list. That unfortunately includes co-favorite #11 Big Balloons (3-1), who is dropping in class out of $5,000 claimers at Charles Town, and co-third choice #13 Hindostain Falls (4-1), exiting a pair of $12,500 claimers at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Hindostain Falls in particular will be a strong contender if he draws in, though he’ll need three scratches for that to happen. The three-year-old gelding has tactical speed and is cutting back in distance off four straight route races. During the spring he placed in a couple of $5,000 maiden claimers sprinting at Horseshoe Indianapolis, on both occasions showing solid early speed. This field at Mountaineer hasn’t come up very deep on paper, so if Hindostain Falls is allowed to start, we’ll be willing to key him on top in the Super High 5.

But what if Hindostain Falls has to scratch? Then we’re left with an even tougher handicapping challenge. The runners in the main body of the field aren’t especially inspiring. We might give a slight edge to #5 Kalinba (4-1), whose first start sprinting against $4,000 claiming company yielded a runner-up finish (beaten a head) on Nov. 5 at Mountaineer. But was a strange race in which the top seven finishers were separated by half a length while stacked up seven across the track at the finish line, and Kalinba finished only a head better than #6 Commissioner H (6-1) and a neck ahead of #7 Mystic Minister (3-1), so it’s difficult to declare with any confidence that Kalinba is the best of the trio. We’ll have to use all three to one degree or another in our Super High 5 tickets.

#4 Resvalon (5-1) is another contender worth including. The three-year-old gelding isn’t the most consistent horse in the field, but during the summer he wired a $4,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Mountaineer by 6 1/4 lengths over Mystic Minister. He subsequently finished behind that rival when sixth in a six-furlong $4,000 claimer at Mountaineer, but Resvalon recently bounced back in a 5 1/2-furlong $4,000 claimer on Nov. 15, finishing third with a respectable 65 Brisnet Speed rating. He has tactical speed and is a good fit for this class level, suggesting a top-five finish is well within reach. But only if he brings his A-game, which isn’t a given.

Amidst all these tricky form lines, one thing is certain: anyone who assembles a winning Super High 5 ticket is going to catch a decent payoff. They might even sweep the whole pool.

Good luck!