Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Dec. 8, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 8 at Turfway Park, along with a horse to single in Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fair Grounds $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any Friday from Dec. 1 through Dec. 29 to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Fraser Downs 15% Win Bonus: Earn a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning win wagers at Fraser Downs every Thursday and Friday from Nov. 16 through Dec. 15.
• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.
• Los Alamitos $3,000 Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Los Alamitos from Dec. 8 through Dec. 10 to earn points and compete for your share of a $3,000 prize pool.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Jimmy the Hat (8-1) didn’t show much in his debut sprinting six furlongs against $50,000 maiden claiming competition at Churchill Downs, finishing eighth. But trainer Wayne Catalano (a solid 19% winner at Turfway since 2021) wins at a 27% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so Jimmy the Hat is eligible to improve while tackling a $15,000 maiden claimer and switching to Tapeta.

We’ll keep things simple with a $25 win bet on Jimmy the Hat.

Selections

• #9 Jimmy the Hat (8-1)
• #4 Conniving (6-1)
• #12 Elm Street (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Jimmy the Hat

Turfway Park: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#12 Ascribe (10-1) has shown flashes of ability in a pair of one-mile maiden special weights over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course, finishing sixth and seventh. His seventh-place finish wasn’t bad, as he gained 7 1/4 lengths through the final quarter-mile to finish only 5 1/2 lengths away from victory.

Horseshoe Indianapolis shippers are performing well at Turfway this meet, so dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer might be all Ascribe needs to visit the winner’s circle for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who has gone 15-for-69 (22%) at Turfway since 2021.

Selections

• #12 Ascribe (10-1)
• #10 Artwell (3-1)
• #8 King of the Gods (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #12 Ascribe

Turfway Park: Race 6: $15,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Spiritcatcher (8-1) won a $12,500 claimer over the Belterra Park turf course during the summer and has since hit the board in a trio of $20,000 and $30,000 claimers, most recently finishing fourth in a $30,000 contest on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Dropping in class for a $15,000 claimer should help Spiritcatcher vie for victory, and returning to Turfway Park—where she rallied boldly to easily win a $15,000 maiden claimer last winter—should boost her chances as well.

Selections

• #5 Spiritcatcher (8-1)
• #10 Starship Belmont (4-1)
• #4 West Coaster (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Spiritcatcher

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $2,217 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)
Fair Grounds: Race 4: $27,046 Pick 5 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

Not a single bettor managed to select more than three of the six winners in Thursday’s $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds. The 50-cent Late Pick 5 also proved elusive. As a result, the Friday card at Fair Grounds features non-jackpot carryovers worth $27,046 (in the late Pick 5) and $2,217 (in the Pick 6).

Challenging sequences are on the agenda. The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 3 and includes 57 horses (averaging 9.5 per race) before scratches. It works out to 699,840 possible outcomes.

Meanwhile, the late Pick 5 starts in Race 4 and features 47 horses (averaging 9.4 per race), which adds up to 69,984 possible outcomes.

Fortunately, we can simplify our handicapping by singling #9 Madam Blue (8-5) in Race 8, the final leg of both the Pick 5 and the Pick 6. Race 8 is a $10,000 maiden claimer for Louisiana-bred fillies and mare sprinting five furlongs on dirt, and Madam Blue is shaping up as a standout while facing eight rivals.

So far, Madam Blue has run exclusively against maiden special weight company. She debuted in a non-state-restricted contest sprinting five furlongs over the Louisiana Downs turf course and set the pace before weakening slightly to finish second by one length. Then in a similar contest over the same distance and surface at Hawthorne, Madam Blue tracked the pace from second place before fading to finish fourth.

At first glance, Madam Blue’s most recent effort—a seventh-place finish by 14 3/4 lengths in a maiden special weight for Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds—is disappointing. But take a closer look, and her performance becomes more appealing. Madam Blue set strong fractions of :21.89 and :46.24 and was only half a length behind with a furlong remaining in the 5 1/2-furlong contest.

Dropping back down to five furlongs and descending into a $10,000 maiden claimer should allow Madam Blue to stretch her speed for a winning performance. High-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a 28% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight into maiden claiming company, and it’s encouraging to note Madam Blue will be ridden by Jareth Loveberry, who has gone 4-for-9 (44%) teaming up with Rivelli over the last two months.

Throw in the fact Madam Blue is the fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and she’s a compelling single to wrap up our Pick 5 and Pick 6 tickets.

Good luck!