Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Nov. 14, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Nov. 14 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Zia Park, along with horses to play in the $8,033 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points at Zia Park: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Zia Park on Mondays and Tuesdays through Dec. 19.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:32 p.m. ET)

Trainer Eddie Kenneally has been on fire at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, going 8-for-12 (67%). That includes a 1-for-3 (33%) record with first-time starters.

Let’s give Kenneally’s unraced juvenile #10 Finn McSorley (8-1) a try. The well-bred son of English Channel out of a Giant’s Causeway mare has the pedigree to shine running long on turf. At 8-1, we’re willing to bet Finn McSorley can fire a winning shot on debut.

#6 Finn and Brennan (3-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #10 Finn McSorley (8-1)
• #6 Finn and Brennan (3-1)
• #2 Woodford Holler (10-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #10 Finn McSorley
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 6
  Total: $20

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#6 Tiz Eddie (7-2) is the horse to beat from a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint. Whereas none of his rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 61, Tiz Eddie posted a 66 when second in his debut over this track, distance, and class level, then followed up with a 64 when fifth in the six-furlong Crown Ambassador S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Returning to the maiden ranks can send Tiz Eddie to the winner’s circle for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Samuel Bermudez and Devarus Douglass. We’ll bet Tiz Eddie to win and key him over #2 Commander Storm (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Tiz Eddie (7-2)
• #2 Commander Storm (2-1)
• #4 Zach (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Tiz Eddie (7-2)
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $30

Zia Park: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:49 p.m. ET)

#10 Trust Anabelle (4-1) ran strongly in her Oct. 8 debut over this distance and class level at Albuquerque, dueling for the lead before weakening in the final furlong to finish second. Her reward was a 65 Brisnet Speed rating only two points lower than the par winning numbers for Tuesday’s conditions at Zia Park.

None of the other experienced runners in this field have run as fast as Trust Anabelle on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, so if her 4-1 morning line odds hold up (which is admittedly far from guaranteed), Trust Anabelle is worth betting heavily to win.

Selections

• #10 Trust Anabelle (4-1)
• #3 Mark the Date (3-1)
• #12 Chasenuinmydreams (10-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #10 Trust Anabelle (4-1)

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $8,033 Pick 6 carryover (1:11 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved for three straight racing days, the $1 Pick 6 at Finger Lakes features a non-jackpot carryover worth $8,033 for Tuesday’s card.

The Pick 6 looks fairly straightforward from a mathematical perspective. The six races drew only 46 horses (averaging about 7.7 per race), which works out to 172,480 possible outcomes—not too bad for a Pick 6.

Many bettors will be keen to single #5 Fiery Heart (1-2) in Race 3, an $8,000 starter optional claimer taking place over six furlongs. Fiery Heart has won each of his last six sprint starts at Finger Lakes, including four over this class level, and should be formidable while sticking to his preferred conditions and facing only four rivals.

But we can’t dismiss #3 Number One Dillon (5-1) as a live longshot. When Number One Dillon makes the lead, he’s tough to run down; in fact, he’s visited the winner’s circle three of the last four times he’s gotten to the front at the first call.

Two starts back, Number One Dillon wired a six-furlong $11,000-$9,000 claimer at Finger Lakes by two lengths with an 84 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against the recent numbers posted by Fiery Heart. None of the other horses in Tuesday’s field have consistently shown a preference for setting the pace, so Number One Dillon has a chance to shake loose up front and potentially spring a surprise against Fiery Heart.

As a result, we would rather single #1 Chubachubachochoo (4-1) in Race 6, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The distance is 5 1/2 furlongs, which should suit Chubachubachochoo just fine. The three-year-old filly wired a $5,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance by 6 1/2 lengths, then set the pace in an $11,000 claimer before weakening to finish fourth.

On Tuesday, Chubachubachochoo is primarily facing fillies and mares who have suffered defeats at the $5,000 claiming level. They have less upside than Chubachubachochoo, who should be tough to catch while dropping down the class ladder for hot trainer Jeffrey Englehart, a 22% winner at Finger Lakes this meet.

Good luck!