Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Nov. 29, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Nov. 29 at Turfway Park, along with tickets for the $1,197 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hong Kong Jockey Club 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 daily) on winning win bets at Happy Valley (HK) and Sha Tin (HK) every race day in November.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/4 miles, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#2 Utah Beach (7-5) has finished second in each of his first three starts against maiden special weight competition on turf. That includes a runner-up finish behind Integration, who has since posted impressive victories in the Virginia Derby (G3) and Hill Prince (G2).

Utah Beach was beaten only a neck in his most recent start traveling 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs and has the pedigree to shine while stretching out over 1 1/4 miles, so let’s bet Utah Beach to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #2 Utah Beach (7-5)
• #5 Fast Chad (10-1)
• #11 Spuns Son (30-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Utah Beach
• $20 Double: 2 with 2
  Total: $40

Turfway Park: Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Thalberg (5-1) was much the best in a $7,500 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Belterra Park turf course last time out, settling in midfield before splitting rivals and edging clear to beat a next-out winner by two lengths.

Trainer William Cowans won with four of his first five starters during the 2022 Turfway Park Holiday Meet, so there’s a good chance Thalberg will be cranked for a peak effort in his first start since Sept. 20. It helps that Cowans wins at a 26% rate with horses running back on 46-90 days of rest.

A win bet on Thalberg is in order, and we’ll also single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #2 Thalberg (5-1)
• #1 Punctuality (3-1)
• #12 Schenectady Star (20-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Thalberg

Turfway Park: Race 8: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#11 Charlee O (10-1) won a $30,000 claimer over this track and distance back in January and has more recently run well in a series of allowance and starter allowance races on turf. Last time out, he was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths when stretching out for a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland.

Charlee O may find the competition a bit easier while returning to Turfway Park. Runners breaking from outside posts fared well in 6 1/2-furlong sprints during the 2022-23 racing season at Turfway, so at 10-1 Charlee O is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #11 Charlee O (10-1)
• #1 Kendal Grace (15-1)
• #9 No Tappin Out (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Charlee O

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $1,197 Super High 5 carryover (12:20 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Wednesday’s $1,197 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs, you’ll have to decipher Race 1, an almost inscrutable $10,000 maiden claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

With eight horses in the entries, there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes, so perhaps “inscrutable” is too strong a word to describe this handicapping challenge. Then again, splitting the contenders is difficult because none bring especially compelling form to the table, and the field’s lone first-time starter appears unlikely to win on debut.

The difficulty of handicapping this race is best illustrated by morning line favorite #3 Rule It (8-5). He’s cracked the trifecta in five of his last six starts against $12,500 maiden claiming competition and figures to appreciate taking a small step down the class ladder.

But Rule It has been competing over the synthetic Tapeta track at Gulfstream Park. His lone dirt run produced a last-place finish over a muddy track in a maiden special weight last May. Does Rule It dislike dirt, or did he find the mud and/or class level too tough to handle? And does it even matter, considering Rule It is exiting a subpar 11th-place finish in a $12,500 maiden claimer over the Gulfstream Tapeta? Rule It misfired so sharply last time, over conditions he’d been handling just fine, that it’s difficult to know what to expect from him on Wednesday.

Perhaps we can beat Rule It with #6 Sir Austin (6-1). The three-year-old gelding has set the pace in three of his six starts (including three out of five while wearing blinkers), and he’s dropping in class out of $12,500 maiden claimers.

There isn’t much speed in Wednesday’s field, so Sir Austin has a chance to shake loose on an uncontested lead while putting blinkers back on. He did fade in his lone route run to date, but that was on Tapeta, and there’s nothing in Sir Austin’s pedigree to suggest 1 1/16 miles is out of his wheelhouse.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 3,6 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 4,5,7 with 1,4,5,7 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,6 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 4,5,7 with 1,4,5,7 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,6 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 4,5,7 with 1,4,5,7 ($16)
  Total: $48

Good luck!